Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased. On November 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent, down from 2.7 percent on October 31.
Boeing’s striking machinists vote today on the company’s latest contract proposal. This comes after weeks of the strike and two previously rejected offers. Union leaders are supporting the new agreement, cautioning that members could end up with less if they choose not to accept it. buff.ly/4ftZGUo
Central banks responsible for more than a third of the global economy will set borrowing costs in the wake of the vote, clinging to whatever certainties they can discern on the likely path of American policy for the next four years.
Ok, we posted several stories about the cost of autos. Time for math. The average auto in 1935 was $853. Today, that same car would be $7,259 with inflation. But, that 1935 car looks nothing like what your 2004 model does so is it inflation or innovation?
Cars price inflation, 1935→2024
buff.ly
This calculator uses the official Consumer Price Index for Cars from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Cars costing $15,000 in 1935 would cost $127,655.09 in 2024.
One in six new-car buyers this year will take on payments of more than $1,000 a month, according to a survey by automotive researcher Edmunds which found that 73% of consumers are holding off on buying a new car because of the cost. buff.ly/4faUo0k
The average price of a new auto this year is $48,205, up 21% from five years ago, and monthly payments on new-car loans now average $767, up 17% from four years ago, according to Cox Automotive. buff.ly/48zrdkV
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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