Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
China's economic slowdown worsened at the start of the second half, with industrial production expanding 4.5% in July from a year earlier, easing for the first time in three months and missing estimates. A divide has emerged between the tech sector, which is booming, and other sectors, with output of electronic equipment soaring more than 19%, while retail sales growth slowed to 0.6% and fixed-asset investment saw a decline of 6.7% in the first seven months. Economists say China's economic data continue to disappoint, with growth momentum "collapsing" outside the tech sector, and policymakers are likely monitoring the data closely to assess whether more aid is needed to ensure the government's annual growth target is within reach. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/china-s-economy-extends-slowdown-by-weakening-across-the-board?cmpid=BBD081726_NEF&utm_campaign=nef&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260817&utm_c
Americans are finally dressing up again and fashion brands Ralph Lauren and Tapestry, which owns the handbag maker Coach, are benefiting. They have found the “sweet spot”, according to one retail consultant, of more affordable than designer but better quality than fast fashion as the return to in-office work fuels a workwear boom and a significant decline in the activewear market. https://www.ft.com/content/8791db73-09d0-4fe9-a11e-1a9e0ce48739?emailId=dabccb91-02e2-4adf-9629-4d920aff5f84&segmentId=13b7e341-ed02-2b53-e8c0-d9cb59be8b3b&syn-25a6b1a6=1
Strain is spreading across private credit portfolios, with some of the largest funds taking writedowns and warning about problem loans as the industry faces its biggest challenge in almost a decade. The value of troubled loans held by some of the biggest private debt investors has reached levels last seen in 2017, an FT analysis has found. https://www.ft.com/content/67acde0d-4154-4332-b33b-2d03d3a86007?emailId=dabccb91-02e2-4adf-9629-4d920aff5f84&segmentId=13b7e341-ed02-2b53-e8c0-d9cb59be8b3b&syn-25a6b1a6=1
Commercial real estate investors have a new affordability warning to watch. For four straight months, consumer prices have risen faster than average hourly earnings, reducing the purchasing power that supports apartment rent payments, retail spending and, ultimately, property-level income. The latest figures underscore the problem. Consumer prices rose 3.36% year-over-year in July, while average hourly earnings increased just 3.15%. That gap may appear modest, but it means workers had less buying power after inflation for essentials including food, electricity, gasoline and shelter. For multifamily owners, the concern is straightforward: households already under pressure from high living costs have less room in their budgets for rent increases. For retail landlords and net-lease investors, weaker real income can translate into more cautious consumer spending and added pressure on tenants. https://www.globest.com/2026/08/17/wage-growth-falls-behind-inflation-and-raises-cre-affordability-concerns?utm_source=email&utm_medium=enl&utm_campaign=nationalalert&utm_c
Many large institutional investors, barred by a new 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act from buying more existing single-family homes for rent if they already own 350, have switched their strategies. They will move to buying houses built specifically to rent, which the law allows, either on their own or through joint ventures. https://www.globest.com/2026/08/17/invitation-homes-pivots-from-existing-houses-to-new-rental-construction?utm_source=email&utm_medium=enl&utm_campaign=nationalalert&utm_c
Commercial real estate's most active investment market in the first half of 2026 was not Dallas, Manhattan or Los Angeles. It was Northern Virginia, where a small number of data centers carried enough value to reorder the national rankings. https://www.globest.com/2026/08/17/cre-market-rankings-shift-as-investors-target-specialized-assets?utm_source=email&utm_medium=enl&utm_campaign=nationalalert&utm_c
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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