Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Large bank credit card borrowers demonstrated financial resilience in the first quarter of 2026, continuing to spend while nonetheless managing their revolving credit card debt. With credit card delinquency rates stabilized, large banks have been easing card underwriting standards slightly with an eye toward portfolio growth. Rate-sensitive mortgage borrowers took advantage of a temporary easing of interest rates in the first quarter, driving growth in large bank mortgage refinances. Meanwhile, new borrowers have increasingly opted for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to secure lower initial monthly payments, as mortgage rates and home prices are still high by historical standards. Large bank mortgage credit performance continues to show strength, with delinquency rates near historical lows. https://buff.ly/oORRI9H
This last week, renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities drove oil prices sharply higher and stocks lower before markets stabilized. The volatility adds another layer of uncertainty to an economy already showing signs of slower growth. S&P Global lowered its Q2 GDP growth estimate to 1.1%, below both the 1.8% consensus forecast and the 1.9% average of three Federal Reserve tracking models. Growth continues, but the economy appears to be losing momentum. Consumers remain cautious. Revolving credit fell in May, real disposable income was flat from a year earlier, and the saving rate is near a four-year low. Consumer spending is expected to remain positive but subdued. The Fed sees a stable labor market but remains concerned about inflation. Tariffs, supply chain disruptions, energy costs, and AI-related demand are adding price pressure. If the Fed moves rates this year, S&P Global believes a hike is more likely than a cut. Housing remains stuck. Existing home sales fell 2.4% in June, while higher prices and mortgage costs pushed the estimated monthly payment to $2,274, or 24.4% of median income. Sales have remained largely stagnant since 2023. The labor market remains relatively stable, while services activity improved modestly in June. Next week brings key inflation, retail sales, housing, and industrial production data that will help clarify whether economic growth is stabilizing or continuing to slow.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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