Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Most commercial property owners are carrying less insurance than they need, creating a quiet but serious valuation gap that can turn a total loss into a balance-sheet shock. For investors and operators already fighting higher operating costs and tighter financing, getting insured values right has become a core risk-management and capital-preservation issue, not a back-office chore. https://www.globest.com/2026/08/05/most-commercial-properties-are-underinsured-as-rebuild-costs-surge?utm_source=email&utm_medium=enl&utm_campaign=nationalalert&utm_c
AI investment has helped sustain global growth this year and offset the drag from higher energy prices stemming from the US war in Iran. Goldman Sachs have reexamined investment plans to take into account capex estimates for foreign and private AI-exposed companies, and allocate investment globally. Economists Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong estimate 2026 AI investment of about $1 trillion globally and just under $600 billion in the US. The AI capex boom is set to contribute even more to the US and global economies going forward, with proportions for the US rising from 1.8% of GDP in the US this year to 2.5% of GDP in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028. Globally, the proportions are smaller but still increasing, from 0.9% this year to 1.3% next and 1.4% in 2028.
Britain's jobs market downturn has lasted as long as the slump seen during the global financial crisis as firms cut costs and turn to artificial intelligence. Firms reported pruning staff numbers due to efforts to reduce costs and investing in AI to improve productivity. The survey showed headcount in July falling at the slowest pace since last October, with the overall PMI rebounding to 52.2 in July, signaling growth. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-05/uk-in-longest-jobs-slump-since-financial-crisis-pmi-shows?cmpid=BBD080526_NEF&utm_campaign=nef&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260805&utm_c
The El Niño on track to become the most powerful of the past 76 years is strengthening rapidly, posing a major threat to fragile economies already roiled by conflict in the Middle East. For emerging markets, and especially for nations in Latin America, Africa and Asia, El Niño’s intense heat and erratic rains will likely compound months of higher oil import costs and strained supply chains warped by the war in Iran. In countries including India and Colombia, El Niño events have repeatedly amped up pressure on energy systems and food commodities that help feed billions globally. Economic growth is already slowing in Peru as the nation’s lucrative anchovy fishery — which supplies exports valued up to $1.8 billion — remains closed due to warming ocean waters. El Niño may be contributing to volatile monsoon conditions in India. Cumulative rainfall through August 3 was 12% below normal nationally, raising risks for rain-fed crops and hydropower in the regions with the largest deficits. https://buff.ly/QhFkyFP
The National Financial Conditions Index was unchanged at –0.53 in the week ending July 31. Risk indicators contributed –0.27, credit indicators contributed –0.16, and leverage indicators contributed –0.10 to the index in the latest week. The Adjusted NFCI increased in the latest week to –0.54. Risk indicators contributed –0.34, credit indicators contributed –0.16, leverage indicators contributed –0.06, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.02 to the index in the latest week.
Zillow announced Tuesday it’s cutting 7% of its workforce, as a lukewarm housing market continues to weigh down its real estate business. Just over 500 employees will leave the real estate giant, which is based in Seattle but employs remote workers nationwide. CEO Jeremy Wacksman said in a statement on Zillow’s website that the company has outperformed “despite a housing market that has been essentially flat.” https://www.seattletimes.com/business/seattle-based-zillow-lays-off-7-of-its-workforce/?utm_source=marketingcloud&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TSA_080426173726+Zillow+announces+more+layoffs_8_4_2026&utm_term=Active%20subscriber
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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