Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Equities rose last week buoyed by strong earnings, solid economic data, and optimism that a lasting resolution to the war in Iran is in the works. The labor market showed resilience, with nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. The JOLTS report also left room for labor market optimism, with the hiring rate rebounding to 3.5% in March, the highest reading since May 2024. Additional data released last week also pointed to underlying resilience. Factory orders rose 1.5% in March, well above expectations, and the ISM manufacturing PMI held steady in expansionary territory at 52.7. Service-sector activity also remained expansionary; the ISM non-manufacturing index registering 53.6% in April, indicating continued growth in the largest segment of the U.S. economy. Consumer sentiment and inflationary pressures, however, still present headwinds. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a record low of 48.2 in May as price pressures continue to be a cause of concern for households. One year forward inflation expectations remained elevated at 4.5%, suggesting consumers expect inflation to be sticky through 2026. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
Brazil set a monthly export record in April thanks to the Iran war, as high oil prices bolstered the South American country’s coffers. Exports totaled $34.15 billion on the month, a 14.3% increase from a year prior and the highest such figure in data going back to 1997. Brazil’s trade surplus rose 37.5% in the same period, hitting $10.5 billion.
The Canadian economy has shed 112,000 jobs so far this year, the weakest four-month stretch since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021. Employment fell by 17,700 in April while more people looked for work, pushing the unemployment rate up to 6.9%, according to government data. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting an increase of 10,000 jobs and for the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.7%. Although employment on a year-over-year basis was up 67,000, it plunged steeply over the first four months of 2026, with the losses almost entirely concentrated in full-time work. So why is Canada suffering? The prime suspects are the global trade war and real war being waged by the US, which have combined to hobble its neighbor to the north.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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