Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
How many new jobs does the U.S. economy actually need? It’s a burning question, sparked again by Friday’s anemic employment report showing the country shed jobs last month even as the unemployment rate has fallen this year. WSJ reporter Justin Lahart examines why slow job growth doesn’t necessarily mean the labor market is in trouble. https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobs-report-unemployment-rate-labor-force-70e22c6c?mod=djem10point
S&P Global: US GDP tracking: 2.1% third-quarter growth. State-and-local employment and the payrolls of residential remodelers were both weaker than expected, implying less government consumption expenditures and residential improvements in Q3 than we previously forecast. On balance, we lowered our tracking forecast for third-quarter GDP growth by 0.1 percentage point to 2.1%.
Canadians are keeping the U.S. travel boycott alive, as June visits remain below pre-Trump levels. Affected U.S. destinations continue to work on luring Canadians back, with one state begging to improve cross-border relations as Canadian visits drop by almost half. https://www.thetravel.com/las-vegas-canadian-tourism-slump-leaves-locals-struggling-financially/
Let's talk job numbers. On Friday, the BLS released the latest monthly update and revisions. So far this year, BLS initially announced a total of 537,000 jobs, then revised that to 449,000. BLS revises the previous two months with each announcement. August 28th, they will do a benchmark revision for the year to date. It is expected to be significant. In 2025, an initially announced 584,000 jobs was later revised to 181,000, or about 15,100 per month. 2026 is currently revised to about 64,100 per month on average. Given labor market constraints, the announced growth is challenging.
Iran's parliament is considering an agreement with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal would ban ships connected to the U.S., Israel and other "hostile countries" from the key waterway until Iran receives compensation for war damages. Commercial vessels passing through the strait would be subject to fees of up to 7% of cargo value and a 20% fine for noncompliance. https://www.npr.org/2026/08/06/nx-s1-5923623/iran-strait-hormuz-us-israel-ban?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_c
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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