Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Economists have upgraded forecasts for China’s import growth, expecting it to overtake the pace of expansion in exports. Imports are set to jump to a five-year high of 5% in 2026, driven by Chinese companies' demand for high-end chips needed for artificial intelligence. China is on track to run a goods surplus of just over $1.2 trillion, barely topping its level in 2025, as growth in exports has also been upwardly revised to 4.9%. https://buff.ly/v72ujuP
This Week: Tuesday: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey for April. Wednesday: The Federal Reserve announces a rate decision, where it is expected to leave the federal-funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Thursday: The advance estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product. The Labor Department reports weekly jobless claims. Friday: US releases manufacturing PMI
Oil prices rebounded sharply last week, rising 12.6% to $94.40 per barrel after two weeks of declines, as a clear path to a long-term peace deal with Iran and permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz stray from reach. While oil remains below its recent peak, the sharp reversal highlights that energy-driven price pressures may persist, prolonging the downstream effects on consumers and economic activity. Treasury yields moved higher across most maturities, suggesting that markets are reassessing the extent to which recent easing in energy-driven inflation pressures will persist. Stocks were mixed as the prior rally showed signs of slowing, with the DJIA declining and both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rising; however, all three indices remain significantly higher than their levels four weeks ago. Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, with sales excluding automobile sales increasing 1.9%, both well above expectations. However, much of this March surge can be attributed to increasing energy prices and inflation, with the data indicating that much of the increase comes from surging prices at gasoline stations rather than increased volume. Business inventories rose a higher-than expected 0.4% in February. Preliminary measures of business activity increased in April, with the S&P Global manufacturing PMI rising to 54.0 and the services PMI at 51.3, both in remaining resilient through April’s energy price pressures. Final consumer sentiment for April rose to 49.8 from its preliminary reading of 47.6, but it still declined from March’s final reading and remains historically low. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
In 2007, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak predicted that robots would “never” be able to make a cup of coffee — meaning walk up to and operate an unfamiliar coffee machine. But AI experts now predict that a robot will pass the “coffee test” somewhere in the 2030s, with a median prediction of 2034. The “coffee test” here “requires a robot to make a cup of coffee in three different unstructured, unfamiliar environments of equivalent complexity to an ordinary home, without making any mistakes.” https://buff.ly/14pXt07
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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