Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
China has unveiled one of its lowest quarterly growth rates in decades as pressure mounts on the world’s second-largest economy amid signs of weak consumer demand and falling investment. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed GDP expanded 4.3 per cent in the second quarter on a year earlier. https://buff.ly/bE9KGif
June’s worldwide S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index™ data points to a global economy that is still growing, but with momentum shifting in ways that matter for strategy. Lower energy prices and easing Middle East supply concerns have helped revive demand in some consumer-facing services, while manufacturing momentum is cooling as precautionary stock building fades. The bigger signal, however, is the disconnect between output and jobs: growth has edged higher, but employment is falling as companies face high costs, weaker expectations and persistent uncertainty. With the US and East Asia expanding more robustly while Europe and the ASEAN region lag, the latest PMI insights give a view of where growth, inflation and business confidence are heading next.
The National Financial Conditions Index decreased to –0.54 in the week ending July 10. Risk indicators contributed –0.29, credit indicators contributed –0.16, and leverage indicators contributed –0.09 to the index in the latest week. The Adjusted NFCI also decreased in the latest week, to –0.54. Risk indicators contributed –0.35, credit indicators contributed –0.15, leverage indicators contributed –0.06, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.03 to the index in the latest week. https://buff.ly/Sxkdt4a
An unprecedented transfer of wealth in the coming decades is likely to disproportionately benefit America’s most affluent families, boosting their fortunes by trillions of dollars, a new report from Visa says. Almost three quarters of those expected to inherit from Baby Boomers are already in the top 10% by household net worth. https://buff.ly/H9RdVci
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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