Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Boeing has laid off 2,199 workers in Washington, according to a notice filed Monday with the state's Employment Security Department.
Here's how many Boeing has laid off in Washington
buff.ly
The cuts hit workers at facilities across the country, and appeared to impact all three Boeing divisions: commercial airplanes, defense and global services.
Restaurant workers in Washington rely heavily on tips, which account for 26% of their total wages — slightly higher than the national average, per data out last week from Square, the payments company. (The average tip is 15%).
As we consider household debt and rising delinquencies, we note that if funding for the healthcare subsidies are rolled back to pre-Biden levels some 3.4 million more will become uninsured adding to consumer pressure. buff.ly/3Vlbz7F
“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates” said Fed Chair Powell on Thursday, sending the stock market down on concerns about future rate cuts. The DJIA lost 1.2% for the week, the S&P 500 dropped 2.1%, and the NASDAQ sank 3.1%. ![]()
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The October CPI rose 0.2% MoM, meeting expectations, with a YoY increase of 2.6% (2.4% in September). The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% MoM, also matching expectations, while remaining at a 3.3% YoY. ![]()
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The shelter index rose 0.4% month-over-month in October and 4.9% year-over-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also increased in October, with both the headline and core PPI rising by 0.2% and 0.3% month-over-month, respectively. ![]()
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The federal budget deficit widened significantly in October, with the Treasury Budget reporting a deficit of $257.0 billion. ![]()
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Retail sales for October grew 0.4% month-over-month, beating expectations and demonstrating resilient consumer spending. Excluding autos, retail sales edged up by 0.1%, slightly below the consensus of 0.2%, suggesting that core consumer demand remains steady but moderated. ![]()
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Industrial production in October declined by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, marking ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector. ![]()
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Capacity utilization fell to 77.1%, missing expectations of 77.3% and underscoring underutilization in industrial capacity, which remains 2.6 percentage points below its long-run average. ![]()
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Labor market indicators showed stability but some softening. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 9 totaled 217,000, slightly below the consensus of 220,000, reflecting relatively low levels of layoffs.![]()
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Employers appear that they are remaining confident about the overall outlook of the economy. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 2 decreased by 11,000 to 1.873 million. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
This Week:![]()
Tuesday: The Commerce Department releases new residential construction data for October![]()
Thursday: The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The Labor Department reports weekly jobless claims.
Federal agency employment has been in the news this week. These infographics from WSJ do a nice job of showing where employment levels are (and have been) within the various agencies.
2.3 Million Jobs: The Federal Workforce, in Charts
buff.ly
President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk want to slash the ranks of government employees; 70% of civilian workers are in military-related agenciesQuestions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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