Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
It may be safe to say that the US-Israel war with Iran is unlikely to be resolved as imminently as markets may have hoped, given the deal brewing between Iran and Oman over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic will seek to bar US and Israeli ships from the strait and require compensation from hostile countries before they’re allowed to use it, according to local media reports. The agreement has become key to expectations for a reopening of Hormuz and a resumption of energy flows that have been throttled since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February. Tehran, having gained the upper hand strategically despite thousands killed and massive damage from US and Israeli bombing, has repeatedly sought to press its advantage as Trump scrambles for a way out that doesn’t appear like another American defeat. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-06/iran-seeks-bar-on-us-ships-in-hormuz-as-deal-with-oman-advances?cmpid=eveus&utm_campaign=eveus&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260806&utm_c
Global bond and currency investors are debating if it’s time to dust off last year’s “Sell America” trade after a flurry of economic-policy decisions out of Washington over the past two weeks. First, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s preference for sparse communication cast doubt on the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation. Next, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signed off on US support to help Japan prop up the yen, an intervention that runs the risk of putting pressure on the dollar. The concern for some investors is that Washington’s policy is again becoming hard to predict. And in that environment, US assets, on the margin, are less appealing, helping to explain why bond yields have jumped to the highest since 2007 and the dollar is weakening. For now, any Sell America trade is happening only in bonds and the dollar — in stocks, a rally in tech has pushed the S&P 500 to a record high.
Yardi Matrix projects that MFH annual rent increases will not move back to a more typical rate of about 3.5% until the early 2030s. In the meantime, national rent growth is expected to remain subdued, with the firm forecasting "very modest growth" of 1.4% for full-year 2026. https://www.globest.com/2026/08/06/rent-growth-recovery-in-multifamily-will-take-until-2030s?utm_source=email&utm_medium=enl&utm_campaign=nationalalert&utm_c
President Donald Trump is preparing to impose tariffs and minimum prices on imported polysilicon to boost domestic production of the material and US semiconductors and solar panels made from it. The trade action could include tariffs of at least 15% and minimum import prices that would apply to raw polysilicon and various solar-power equipment, with analysts anticipating a tariff of 25% to 35%. The measures are part of Trump's effort to wield levies to spur US manufacturing and diversify supply chains, which China dominates in the solar industry, and would also include a temporary offset program to insulate domestic manufacturers reliant on imported material. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-05/trump-readies-tariffs-and-price-floors-to-bolster-us-polysilicon?cmpid=BBD080626_NEF&utm_campaign=nef&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260806&utm_c
It’s no secret that AI has an insatiable appetite for electricity. Less well-known is how rapid fluctuations in that demand are causing critical systems to malfunction or wear down prematurely. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-06/data-centers-are-being-damaged-by-ai-s-volatile-power-demand?cmpid=080626_morningamer&utm_campaign=morningamer&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260806&utm_c
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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