Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been pronounced for prime-age and college-educated individuals, while the decline in job finding for people who are out of the labor force has been driven by younger and less-educated individuals. These demographic patterns differ from job-finding rates during typical economic expansions and imply both a cooling and a restructuring within the labor market. https://buff.ly/zQm29fF
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates indicate planted area in 2026 will be lower than a year earlier for each of the four major pulse crops and potatoes. Planted acreage declined by 739,000 acres from 2025, with lentils and dry beans accounting for nearly three-fourths of the reduction. The decline is also geographically concentrated among major producing States. Lower lentil, dry pea, and chickpea acreage in Montana and lower dry bean, dry pea, and lentil acreage in North Dakota account for much of the pulse contraction, while Idaho accounts for about half the reduction in potato acreage. These reductions follow expanded pulse acreage in 2025 and mark the third consecutive annual decline in potato plantings. https://buff.ly/8sBUHAz
Employers in the US likely stepped up their pace of hiring in July, showing a steady appetite for workers despite the overhang of geopolitical concerns and elevated inflation. Economists estimate the monthly jobs report on Friday will show an 85,000 increase in payrolls after the lower-than-expected 57,000 gain in June, according to the Bloomberg survey median. The unemployment rate, which is based on a survey of households rather than establishments, is seen holding steady at 4.2%.
It appears that the commercial real estate folk are not thrilled with the latest from the Fed. Kevin Warsh's second meeting as Fed chair has rattled markets and raised fresh questions about how committed the central bank really is to taming inflation—and commercial real estate is squarely in the line of fire. His refusal to raise interest rates despite above‑target inflation, talk of fewer policy meetings and a more opaque communication style add up to a regime that could mean higher long‑term borrowing costs, greater volatility and a tougher financing environment for CRE owners and lenders. https://buff.ly/nX0eyIg
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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