Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Stocks rose last week as history’s largest IPO, a better-than-expected CPI report, and hopes that a deal to end the war in Iran would soon be in place counteracted midweek volatility. Oil prices declined to $84.23 per and are now 11.7% below four weeks ago. Although headline CPI accelerated on a year-over-year basis, core CPI came in lower than expected, at just 0.2% month-over-month. May’s PPI report showed, however, that energy-related price pressures were still lingering in the production pipeline, with final demand energy prices increasing 10.7% and energy costs driving much of the increase in intermediate goods prices. Headline PPI increased a staggering 1.1% month-over-month, suggesting rising input prices still risk bleeding through to consumer prices. Housing and consumer-related indicators were more constructive. Existing home sales totaled 4.17 million in May, above the 4.07 million consensus expectation, while mortgage applications increased 10.8% during the week ending June 6, suggesting some improvement in housing demand despite mortgage rates slowly creeping upwards. Small business sentiment remained subdued, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index registering 95.3 in May; the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment was also subdued, measuring at 48.9, above expectations but historically weak. One year-forward inflation expectations cooled slightly, but at 4.6%, remain elevated. The April trade deficit totaled $55.9 billion, close to expectations, and the May Treasury budget posted a $292.6 billion deficit, highlighting continued fiscal pressure. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
The World Bank cut its outlook for global growth this year, saying two-thirds of economies have seen prospects deteriorate due to the Middle East war. The bank predicts the world economy will expand 2.5% in 2026, down from a January forecast of 2.6%, and forecasts global headline inflation to climb to 4% this year. The World Bank is stepping up support for weaker economies at risk from the Mideast war, making as much as $60 billion in credit available and working with over 30 countries to enhance readiness and enable a rapid response to the crisis. https://buff.ly/0eZ6PKf
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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