Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
South Americans Offer US Tourism a Lifeline as Others Stay Away. Visits from the region jumped 5.5% in the first half of the year, in contrast to sharp downturns from Europe and Canada. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-12/us-tourist-industry-gets-a-lifeline-from-south-americans?cmpid=BBD081526_businessweek&utm_campaign=businessweek&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260815&utm_c
Overall consumer sentiment fell 8% in the early days of August, after two consecutive months of improvement. The index fell to 51, from 55.2 in July. That remains above the recent lows reached in the spring, when gasoline prices were soaring. Inflation expectations were stable, with expected inflation over the next year ticking up to 4.3% and over the next five years unchanged at 3.3%. But, the intrigue: The steepest month-to-month drop in sentiment was among survey respondents who identify as Republicans, with their outlook now 19% below readings from just before the Iran war and at the lowest since the 2024 election. https://www.axios.com/2026/08/14/consumer-sentiment-republicans
US retail sales fell in July by the most in more than a year as consumers pulled back on purchases at online stores and auto dealers. The value of retail purchases decreased 0.6%, the most since May 2025, according to data published by the Census Bureau. Five of 13 categories in the report posted declines, led by a 2.2% drop in sales at nonstore retailers such as Amazon. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/us-retail-sales-fall-by-most-in-more-than-a-year?cmpid=eveus&utm_campaign=eveus&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260814&utm_c
The US will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as part of a "one-two punch" that includes the continued blockade of Iran's ports. The move is an effort to force Tehran's capitulation after almost six months of war, with talks aimed at bringing about a lasting peace having stalled and intermittent clashes continuing. The US has already added some sanctions on Tehran since 2018, and it's unclear what meaningful economic measures the US could implement without resorting to secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil, such as China. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/us-to-roll-out-economic-isolation-plan-for-iran-next-week?cmpid=BBD081426_NEF&utm_campaign=nef&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260814&utm_c
President Trump has argued that the “golden age” he promised for the US economy is already here, but voters seem unconvinced. With midterm elections less than three months away, the gap between his message and public sentiment is becoming harder to ignore. The economic data itself offers a mixed picture. Unemployment is low, American consumers are buying plenty of stuff, and there are signs of a manufacturing revival. But inflation has been back above 3%. That’s a problem given voters are laser-focused on the cost of living and seem to have concluded that Trump’s policies haven’t helped. Just 39% approve of the president’s job performance, according to RealClearPolitics.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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