Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Join our Economics Department for a roundtable discussion on the "Economics of the Election," where we will delve into the economic implications of the 2024 presidential candidates' policy positions. In person/Zoom. 10/24 at 4p.
Economics of the Election | The Foundation for WWU & Alumni | Western Washington University
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Join us for roundtable discussion on the "Economics of the Election," where we will delve into the economic implications of the 2024 presidential candidates' policy positions. This event provides a un...
Google is investing in the development of the next generation of nuclear power, backing a company that’s building small modular reactors and agreeing to purchase energy once the sites start supplying US grids. buff.ly/408ixjl
Economists think Donald Trump’s fiscal plans are more likely to add to inflation, deficits and interest rates than those of Kamala Harris, a WSJ survey shows. buff.ly/3Uchb3h
Butter prices have rocketed in recent months, trading at record highs across Europe in bad news for bakers and pastry makers as they prepare for Christmas celebrations and already face high chocolate and sugar costs. buff.ly/3zLj5RG
Three economists are awarded a Nobel for their work on income inequality. Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, both of M.I.T., and James Robinson of the University of Chicago were honored for explaining differences in prosperity between nations. buff.ly/40mNH6X
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hit a new record high on Friday (the 45th time this year for the S&P 500), pushed by strong bank earnings reports. The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 1.1% for the week. ![]()
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Inflation continued to moderate in September, but not as much as experts predicted. The 12-month change in the CPI dropped to 2.4% from 2.5% in August. However, the month-over-month increase was higher than expected. ![]()
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Similarly, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, grew faster than expected from August and September. ![]()
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Wholesale prices (PPI) were flat for the month, beating analysts’ expectations. Excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.2%, aligning with expectations. ![]()
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Consumer credit increased less than expected in August, influenced by a drop in revolving credit, suggesting increased caution among consumers. The trade deficit narrowed to $70.4 billion in August following a boost in exports, which will have a positive impact on the Q3 GDP. ![]()
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The number of individuals filing initial unemployment claims rose by 33,000 to 258,000 in the week ending October 5th, the highest level since August 5th, 2023. A series of recent strikes and the devastation brought by Hurricane Helene are behind this jump. ![]()
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After bottoming at the end of September, mortgage rates are climbing again. Mortgage applications fell for the second consecutive week by 5.1% in the week ending October 5th. ![]()
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The preliminary University of Michigan index of Consumer Sentiment for October slipped to 68.9 from the final reading of 70.1 in September. Still, this remains above its level from one year ago (63.8). Consumers are feeling frustrated with higher living costs despite a still-strong labor market and falling inflation. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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