Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
It's a triple threat: high home prices, high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. The result is showing up as a Seattle-area housing market that's stubbornly sluggish at a time when it would normally be busy. A lot of it comes down to affordability (or lack thereof) with potential buyers staring down $5,000-a-month payments for median-priced homes around here. Amid all this, though, there are a few bright spots and outliers. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-area-housing-market-is-stuck-in-affordability-trap/?utm_source=marketingcloud&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning+Brief+06-04-26_6_4_2026&utm_term=Active%20subscriber
The Fed’s Beige Book showed employment remained stable in recent weeks as inflation continued to rise across much of the country. Overall economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in 10 of 12 Fed districts, with energy-related costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East being the primary driver of inflationary pressures. Businesses expressed concern over deteriorating customer sentiment, with business outlooks for the next six months showing little change in anticipated growth due to elevated uncertainty and signs of weakening consumer spending. https://buff.ly/gNa2E12
There is a debate about young workers in the US. Many common jobs for this age category have not been impacted by AI and the relative number of younger workers in impacted fields is low. Youth employment, which tends to be more sensitive to economic cycles than that of older workers, serve as a signal for the broader market. Indicators over the coming months, starting with the May employment report due Friday, will help figure whether last year’s spike in youth unemployment above 10% was a fluke or a peek into the future.
US service-sector activity picked up in May, with the Institute for Supply Management’s services index rising to a three-month high of 54.5. Gauges of new orders and business activity increased, signaling resilient consumer demand, and nearly every service industry reported growth in the month. The costs of services and materials for firms continued climbing, with the ISM’s prices-paid gauge rising to 71.3, the highest since August 2022, and businesses may choose to pass those cost increases onto shoppers. https://buff.ly/CM4rO7h
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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