Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Equities weakened last week as investor concerns regarding AI sent tech stocks lower; and Treasury yields fell as a cooler-than-expected January CPI (0.2% headline and 0.3% core) pushed up bets of multiple rate cuts this year. Nonfarm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, signaling a robust labor market at the start of the new year; however, downward benchmark revisions indicated only 181,000 jobs were created in 2025, the weakest annual job growth since 2003. Retail sales were flat in December, representing a relatively muted end to the holiday shopping season. On the fiscal side, the January Treasury budget deficit came in at $94.6B, narrower than the $190.0B expected. The CBO also released an outlook that projects an expanding annual deficit through 2036. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
This Week: Wednesday: The Fed will release the minutes from its Jan. 27-28 meeting, which will be closely watched for hints about the future direction of rate cuts. Thursday: December trade figures are due. Friday: The personal consumption expenditures price index for December—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—is released, along with an advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.
America is short on optimism, according to a poll released this week by Gallup that asked US adults what they expect their lives to be like in five years. Fewer expected to be “thriving” in five years’ time, per the pollster’s definition, than at any point since they began reporting that data in 2009. Just 21% of Americans expect the next generation to be better off, according to Edelman’s annual trust survey, conducted in late 2025 — a nine-point decline in optimism from a year prior. The University of Michigan asks in its monthly consumer survey whether respondents expect their financial situation to be better in five years; that measure hit its lowest recorded level in October.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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