Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
For multifamily investors who have spent the past several years riding the rental roller coaster, new data from Apartment List suggests the market may finally be settling into a more predictable groove. The firm's latest national rent report points to modest rent growth, a slight dip in vacancies and early evidence that the construction spike of recent years is starting to be absorbed. At the same time, Apartment List is clear that conditions remain "decidedly cool," so the story is now less about distress and more about cautious stabilization. https://buff.ly/EsThw7a
The two-year US Treasury yield climbed back toward last month’s peak amid a selloff in global bond markets. The moves were spurred in part by rising oil prices and inflation worries. That short-term yield, which closely tracks expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, rose as much as five basis points to 4.23%, within a basis point of its June 22 peak. That was the highest since February 2025. The 10-year yield climbed as much as four basis points to 4.59%, the highest since late May. It is worth pointing out that recently, mortgage rates are tracking the two-year Treasury rather than the ten-year.
Options traders are increasing bets that the broader market is overestimating how much the Federal Reserve, now under Donald Trump’s new Fed Chair pick, will raise interest rates this year. The dovish shift began last week as Kevin Warsh — who made a hawkish splash in his first big speech — now says inflation risks have recently come down. https://buff.ly/WkrfqsE
Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House last year, the US has fallen into a tourism trough. His on-again, off-again tariffs, toughened borders and visa policies, agents dispatched to American cities, and deployments of troops abroad have made the country a far less inviting destination for global travelers. As would-be overseas visitors went elsewhere or simply stayed home, the US tourism industry lost out on as much as $16.6 billion in 2025 and is headed for an additional $21 billion deficit this year — what it might have earned if it had maintained its pre-Trump market share — research from Tourism Economics estimates. https://buff.ly/4qWdUQa
More young adults are staying in their parents' homes well into their late 20s, and that trend is starting to matter for multifamily investors. Last year, 49% of adults under age 30 were living with a parent, according to 2025 data from the Federal Reserve, up 600 basis points since 2022 and up 1,200 basis points from 2019, before the pandemic. That has implications for underwriting. Projections for rent growth, occupancy and the timing of demand for new product that targets younger tenants may need to reflect slower household formation. https://buff.ly/3vTIdhG
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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