Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Downtown Seattle is booming, just not with the locals. For the second straight year, more people visited downtown than in the year before COVID hit. But the number of visitors who live within 10 miles of the city's core is sagging, and weekday worker foot traffic is way below 2019 levels. https://buff.ly/DGwL2He
Markets rebounded last week as equities recovered some of their recent losses, though all major indices remain down over the past quarter. Treasury yields fell sharply across the curve, signaling growing expectations of slowing economic activity and potential policy easing. Meanwhile, amid ongoing conflict with Iran, energy prices continue to surge. WTI crude oil prices closed at $111.54 a gallon last Friday and national average gas prices are above $4.00 for the first time since August 2022, intensifying inflationary pressures. Mortgage rates also continued to climb, now at 6.46% and 46 bps higher than a month ago. Mortgage applications declined sharply last week by 10.4% due to the spike in borrowing costs. Consumer confidence improved to 91.8 in March and employers added 178,000 jobs in the same month, well above expectations. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Notably, wage growth slowed to 0.2%, easing some labor cost pressures. JOLTS data for February showed job openings little changed at 6.9 million, while hires declined notably, signaling cooling labor demand despite the strong March employment report. The trade deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion, reflecting stable but uneven global demand. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
This Week: Tuesday: The US releases data on durable goods and consumer credit. Wednesday: The Federal Reserve releases its latest minutes, which could offer clues as to whether the central bank is likely to raise interest rates to tackle rising inflation. Thursday: The US releases data on initial jobless claims and GDP, as well as the latest US personal income and spending report, which includes the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Friday: Consumer-price index data for March will give investors information about how high energy costs are lifting prices more broadly. Consumer sentiment is also out.
Analysts at Bloomberg Economics are predicting that March CPI – out April 10 – will show the largest monthly increase since mid-2022, when year-over-year inflation peaked at 9.1% in the aftermath of the pandemic. For context, US inflation was running at just 2.4% in February 2026, before the conflict began.
The age of the median American home is 44 years, a record number, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. More recent new construction hasn’t replaced America’s graying housing stock, and the cost of maintaining and modernizing these homes is going up fast. https://buff.ly/Z9SUHMQ
Research by the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute shows that the ranks of the affluent have grown markedly over the last 50 years or so, while the lower rungs of the middle class have shrunk. The rise in affluence is powering a U.S. economy built on consumer spending, and transforming the types of products and services companies offer. These tend to be the people buying $1,700 bassinets for their babies, artisanal food for their dogs, pricey gym memberships, luxury cruises and spots in business-class airplane cabins. https://buff.ly/7O4FZ8e
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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