Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
14% - The year-over-year increase in rents in San Francisco in February, the fastest growth in the country, according to Apartment List. While much of the U.S. housing market has been stuck in a rut, pockets of San Francisco are rebounding as the AI boom, a new mayor and other changes in municipal leadership help reverse a yearslong slump in the city. https://buff.ly/ZsUKXZe
Stocks fell again last week as the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt the energy supply chain, simultaneously putting downward pressure on growth and upward pressure on prices. Despite their status as a safe haven, Treasury yields rose across the board, driven by investor fears that the upward pressure on prices will erode chances of rate cuts in 2026. Oil prices increased 8.9% last week to $98.99 per barrel, driving up prices of related commodities from jet fuel to fertilizer. The Treasury statement showed a large deficit in February at $307.5 billion. Real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised down to a 0.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) versus the advanced reading of a 1.4% SAAR. The CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year in February, but it is likely to rise in coming months as energy price hikes make their way through the economy. The combination of slowing growth and inflation pressures complicates the Fed’s rate cutting path. There was, however, some evidence of positive growth in activity. Existing home sales increased more than expected in February, rising 1.7% to a 4.09 million annual rate against expectations of 3.88 million. Building starts also increased more than expected, rising to a 1.487 million annual rate in January, above consensus expectations of 1.340 million. Personal income and spending were solid, with both up 0.4% month-over-month in January. Job openings increased 6.0% in January after declining for the previous two months. The labor market remains in a "no-hire, no-fire" stalemate. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
US consumer sentiment declined to a three-month low as fears mount about the war’s impact on gas prices, according to a University of Michigan survey. Sentiment may further succumb to higher costs if the war continues, as Americans already face continuing affordability issues. A fragile labor market, illustrated by a weak February jobs report, could also further dampen spirits.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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