Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Remember that some 1% of projected GDP for 2026 is AI buildout. Oracle chief Larry Ellison plans to terminate thousands of his employees in divisions across the company in a scramble to save money. The company is increasingly viewed as the canary in the coal mine in terms of fears of an AI-inducted market correction.
Mortgage rates fell below 6% for the first time in years last month, offering a glimmer of hope for the sluggish Seattle-area housing market. Then, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran — sending rates back up again. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/mideast-war-hit-seattle-area-housing-markets-hope-for-lower-rates/?utm_source=marketingcloud&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning+Brief+03-05-26_3_5_2026&utm_term=Active%20subscriber
Job numbers are out this morning, and we need to talk. Economists expected 59,000 jobs. A net loss of 92,000 was announced. Last month, a gain of 130,000 was announced, vastly above the expected 60-75,000. Last year's data was revised down from 584,000 to 181,000. Throughout all of it, unemployment has remained below 5% and has edged into the low 4's. Data corrections and data lags are the real story, but let's make sense of the last two months. If we combine Jan and Feb, we see an expected net of 124,000 and an announced 38,000. Last year, we averaged around 15,000 per month. We suspect none of the announced numbers are correct, but the average is likely close enough - around 15,000 per month. This is extremely slow growth. It likely reflects the changes we see in net migration and very low job announcements. The net effect, though, is very low unemployment, which may be giving a false sense of security overall. https://buff.ly/SZAptHk
69% is the increase in a year of people on LinkedIn listing themselves as founders. This growing embrace of entrepreneurship indicates a mental shift toward self-reliance. Many new founders feel they are better off on their own—or have no other choice after a fruitless job search. https://buff.ly/zAnntVY
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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