Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
The Mountain West and southern states are winning the battle for working-age talent in the US, posing challenges for companies in the Northeast and Midwest, new data from the Census Bureau show. The West and South contain the top 10 states in the growth of working-age population between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2025, led by Utah’s 10.8% growth in the number of 25- to 64-year-olds. Nationwide, the number of Americans ages 65 and older far outgrew any other age group, up 16.2% between April 2020 and July 2025. Remember, percent change is not the same as number - consider the denominators in these fractions. https://buff.ly/VD2M1fg
America’s economy is in great shape according to its president, abysmally bad judging by the sentiment of its consumers – and pretty much par for the course based on a longer view of the growth numbers themselves. A common musing at the start of this decade was whether there’d be any repeat of the “Roaring ’20s” experienced a century ago. Now that we’re past the half-way mark, it seems unlikely economic growth will live up to that title. But that’s not the only metric to consider. When it comes to corporate profits, which are helping to fuel a record-breaking stock market, the 2020s really does have a claim to fame. A key measure of economy-wide profit margins has reached levels unseen since shortly after World War II. In other words, corporate America hasn’t had it so good since Harry Truman was president.
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for June is 4.33%, a small increase from the BLS value for the previous month. This forecast is a product of a small increase in layoffs and a small decrease in hiring, as measured by the Chicago Fed’s Hiring Rate for Unemployed Workers and the Chicago Fed’s Layoffs and Other Separations Rate. https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/chicago-fed-labor-market-indicators/latest-release
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.10 in May from +0.19 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from April, and three categories made negative contributions in May. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.03 in May from +0.07 in April. https://buff.ly/Urd1Uop
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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