Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
The Group of Seven says no single country should supply more than 60% of their rare earth imports by 2030. The motivation for the goal is clear: China dominates global rare-earth supply and has shown its ability to use that leverage as a geopolitical tool. Analysis by Nicole Gorton-Caratelli and Chris Kennedy of Bloomberg Economics suggests more than $2 trillion in G7 GDP could be at risk if Chinese exports of those key inputs ceased. What’s less clear is how that target will be met. Last year, China accounted for close to 70% of G7 imports of rare-earth metals and compounds and 80% of its imports of permanent magnets. That likely understates true dependence. China is behind most global rare-earth production and processing, so even imports from elsewhere probably rely on Chinese value added.
The latest update to the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge is unlikely to challenge a growing consensus at the US central bank around the need for interest-rate hikes this year. Forecasters expect the personal consumption expenditures price index, due Thursday, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. That report will cap a month of bad inflation data after previous releases showed how the impact of the energy shock was spreading across the economy.
President Donald Trump's administration is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. https://buff.ly/l3i3Fq6 Many countries are subject to investigations under accusations of trade unfairness, with some countries standing to gain a competitive edge with a lower tariff rate and others potentially ending up worse off. The new tariff wall may benefit countries like the Philippines, South Africa, and smaller economies, while countries like Singapore may be left in a worse position, and the impact on countries like Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and China is still uncertain.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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