Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
The economy, inflation and how those forces could impact the lives of Americans were front and center over the past week. Trips to the grocery store or gas station are more painful than they were last year, and rising costs are impacting the decisions of both households and businesses. IMF expects world economy to grow a sluggish 3% this year, The International Monetary Fund this week downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2026 citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war. Existing home sales fell 2.4% last month from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, the National Association of Realtors said this week. Sales rose 2.8% compared with June last year. In the first set of minutes released under new Chair Kevin Warsh, “many” of the Fed’s 19 officials said its key rate would be unchanged from or slightly below its current level of 3.6% by the end of this year. But they also said that it would likely be higher by year-end. Global oil demand will likely decline this year for the first time since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic isolated billions of people at home, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency expects demand to drop by 1 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. applications for jobless aid in the week ending July 4 ticked down by 2,000 to 215,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet forecast 220,000 new applications. U.S. stocks and oil prices drifted toward a quiet finish of the week Friday following their earlier fireworks on worries about how the war with Iran will affect the global flow of crude. https://buff.ly/BinwDJZ
A new rule proposed by the White House Office of Management and Budget would fundamentally overhaul the way federal grants are awarded and overseen — a sweeping change that one scientific society said “would all but end the use of scientific merit in the selection of grants and programs across the government.” https://buff.ly/29pKvQC
AI is hailed as a transformational general purpose technology (GPT) in the vein of railways, electricity and the internet. One thing about those: history shows while GPT “vastly increased productivity in the economy, many of them were also associated with significant overinvestment and massive capital overhang.” https://buff.ly/KtZePU0
America’s entrepreneurial spirit, which surged during the pandemic, is now making a big comeback fueled by AI. In the years after Covid-19 struck, people who were laid off or just bored by lockdowns rushed to create their own businesses and became one of the era’s few economic highlights. While the boom eventually plateaued in 2021, economists believe artificial intelligence has sparked another wave of entrepreneurialism. In industries with functions that can be streamlined with AI, such as the broad professional services sector (architects, lawyers, advertisers), business formations are projected to surge 24% within the next year. https://buff.ly/VV65OB2
June’s worldwide Purchasing Managers’ Index™ data points to a global economy that is still growing, but with momentum shifting in ways that matter for strategy. Lower energy prices and easing Middle East supply concerns have helped revive demand in some consumer-facing services, while manufacturing momentum is cooling as precautionary stock building fades. The bigger signal, however, is the disconnect between output and jobs: growth has edged higher, but employment is falling as companies face high costs, weaker expectations and persistent uncertainty. With the US and East Asia expanding more robustly while Europe and the ASEAN region lag. https://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/PMI-Monthly-Bulletin-June-CD-Request.html
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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