Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
The Trump administration now expects oil supply disruptions stemming from its five-month war with Iran to reach about 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2027 as the conflict continues to restrict shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA has hiked gasoline and diesel price forecasts for 2026 and increased its 2027 forecast for retail gasoline prices due to the ongoing conflict and disruptions to global energy markets. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/us-sees-iran-war-oil-supply-disruptions-lasting-through-2027?cmpid=eveus&utm_campaign=eveus&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260811&utm_c
Federal Reserve Bank of New York issues its second-quarter Household Debt and Credit Report, a snapshot of trends in household borrowing and indebtedness, including mortgages, student loans, credit cards and auto loans. Total household debt decreased by $13 billion to total $18.8 trillion in the second quarter, a 0.1 percent decrease, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Aggregate delinquency rates improved slightly, with 4.7 percent of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transition into early delinquency ticked up for auto loans and mortgages but was largely steady for credit cards and other debts. Mortgage balances declined by $74 billion to reach $13.1 trillion and home equity lines of credit balances rose by $13 billion to total $459 billion. Credit card balances rose by $21 billion to stand at $1.26 trillion, and auto loan balances increased by $28 billion to $1.71 trillion. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc
Housing Affordability Improves But Buyers Still Face a $22,197 Income Gap. Lower mortgage rates have offered some relief, yet median-income households remain priced out of much of the market. https://www.globest.com/2026/08/11/housing-affordability-improves-but-buyers-still-face-a-22197-income-gap?utm_source=email&utm_medium=enl&utm_campaign=nationalalert&utm_c Redfin's June 2026 analysis found that a household would need to earn $109,796 annually to afford a median-priced home while keeping housing costs at 30% of income. That is down from $110,382 in 2025, but still $22,197 above the typical household income of $87,599.
CRE Lending Recovery Broadens But Remains Uneven Across Sectors. Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations rose 16% year over year in the second quarter, led by strong gains in office and retail lending and a sharp increase in bank and CMBS activity. https://www.globest.com/2026/08/11/cre-lending-recovery-broadens-but-remains-uneven-across-sectors?utm_source=email&utm_medium=enl&utm_campaign=nationalalert&utm_c
Most 4-year graduates work in same state as their alma mater, report finds. States looking to grow their college-educated workforce should focus on “homegrown talent” over wooing outside workers, according to the analysis. https://www.highereddive.com/news/most-4-year-graduates-work-in-same-state-as-their-alma-mater-report-finds/827460/
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slowed again in July as record prices and the highest mortgage rates in more than a year prove to be an insurmountable hurdle for many prospective homebuyers. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/us-existing-homes-fall-1-7-in-july-as-record-prices-high-mortgage-rates-stifle-would-be-buyers/?block=mbbusinesspersonalization&&utm_c
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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