Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Markets rallied last week with equities surging and Treasury yields declining after Iran and the United States signaled progress in peace talks. Although the Strait of Hormuz was reopened on Friday, as of Saturday morning, it was closed once again. Oil prices declined an additional 12.5% to $84 per barrel, now 15.3% lower than four weeks ago; however, the price of oil remains 41.8% higher than thirteen weeks ago, so the downstream effects of the price shock remain to be fully released. Economic data pointed to lower-than-expected inflation pressures but mixed underlying activity. Producer prices rose 0.5% in March, below expectations but still elevated, while core PPI increased only 0.1%, signaling easing input price pressures. In contrast, import prices (+0.8%) and export prices (+1.6%) were up significantly in March, indicating continued pressure from global trade channels. Business sentiment and housing activity showed signs of weakening, with the March NFIB small business optimism index falling to 95.8 and NAHB housing index declining to 34 in April. Existing home sales totaled 3.98 million in March, coming in slightly below the consensus of 4.01 million. Manufacturing data were mixed. Industrial production declined 0.5% and capacity utilization fell to 75.7% in March, both coming in below expectations during the first month of the war in Iran. The full impact of energy price shocks can take months to materialize. Regional manufacturing data pointed to underlying strength, with the Empire State index rising to 11.0 in April and the Philadelphia Fed index increasing to 26.7, both well above expectations. The labor market also remained stable, with initial claims falling to 207,000 and continuing claims declining to 1.818 million. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
There is a fun study from 2023 with the title “What I didn’t grow up with is dangerous.” It finds that older people are more likely to see new technologies as “corrupting the youth” — and that “people were still more likely to think [a new technology or social change] was more corrupting if they did not experience it growing up.” https://buff.ly/XO5bIWX
Younger Americans are much less excited about artificial intelligence than they were a year ago, a fact that should concern AI boosters. Younger people are generally more enthusiastic about new technologies, and they are usually the ones who benefit most from them. The fact that they are souring on this one is not a good sign for its future. https://buff.ly/cI3EMy0
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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