Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Airlines are finally getting some relief at the jet-fuel pump: Fuel prices are down 40% from their peak in April. But analysts say fares aren’t likely to follow. Travelers are continuing to pay the higher prices—and carriers aren’t rushing to bring back the flights and routes that were trimmed during oil’s surge. https://buff.ly/MDdZVCs
A new paper by Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, Keelan Beirne and Andrew Scott finds that aging and shrinking populations have historically raised an economy’s output per worker and had no damping effect on overall gross domestic product. The authors write that lower birth rates have raised GDP per worker, with each percentage-point drop leading to a 26.8% increase in GDP per worker, and that this gain has been large enough to fully offset the negative effect of population decline. The authors argue that it is the technological response to declining birth rates, including a shift toward exports in high-tech industries and more labor-saving patenting, that produces the positive relationship between baby busts and subsequent growth booms. https://buff.ly/KX1etkF
A three-day hearing on the US Trade Representative’s plan to impose tariffs on major trading partners kicks off in Washington today. The USTR determined that each of the investigated economies failed to “impose and effectively enforce a forced labor import prohibition,” and recommended that goods imported into the US from those economies face an additional duty. Dozens of stakeholders will make their case — for or against the duties — to US trade officials, including government officials, trade groups, and human rights organizations. https://buff.ly/yLr4q8b
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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