Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
Oil resumed gains as concerns mount about disruptions to flows from the Middle East, with the US continuing to strike Iran. Tehran had told Yemen’s Houthi rebel group to close the Red Sea shipping route if Iran power infrastructure is attacked, which has provided a vital lifeline for Saudi Arabia’s oil exports. Markets are nervous about the conflict, with International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol saying he hopes the crisis will be solved quickly and in a convincing way, otherwise the global economy may face some difficulties. https://buff.ly/Tjyy3l6
Dollar General has attracted wealthier customers by emphasizing value, particularly through a $1 price point, CEO Todd Vasos said during a recent earnings call. The retailer has seen an influx of customers with incomes over $100,000, mainly from the grocery and drug sectors. Dollar General's Value Valley section, featuring more than 500 rotating items priced at $1, has outperformed chain averages, especially in health and beauty. https://buff.ly/YhqbXOR
U.S. single-family rentals have finally hit a wall after years of steady post‑pandemic rent growth, with national asking rents slipping and pricing power weakening even through the normally busy spring leasing season. For investors who have treated SFRs as a reliable growth engine since 2020, the latest data from Rentometer and federal vacancy figures indicate a market moving into a more competitive, supply‑driven phase. https://buff.ly/bYEuLnC
Brent oil surged, topping $87 a barrel for the first time in a month, as the truce between the US and Iran collapsed with fresh attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates said two of its tankers were struck while transiting the southern shipping lane of the waterway, marking a direct attack on one of the biggest flows through the strait in recent months. The conflict has pushed oil prices up by almost 14% so far this week, with analysts warning that the global oil market is now in a more vulnerable position to withstand further supply shocks. https://buff.ly/9yU4Xdl
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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