Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
There's a good chance that something you purchased at a store passed through a port before it reached you. The new Economy Matters quiz tests your knowledge of some key regional ports, which have become a linchpin of the national and global economies. buff.ly/4d7qSae
Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased. On July 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent, up from 2.5 percent on July 16.
At Boeing, the head of its commercial airline unit expects a “meaningful” increase in 737 production rates. But Stephanie Pope has a word of caution, too. buff.ly/3YwDELF
A key regulator is said to have determined that half of the 22 large US banks it supervises have insufficient or weak management of operational risk. The harsh grades are part of sweeping regulatory scrutiny in the wake of a series of bank failures last year.
China cuts key lending rates to boost sluggish economy. The country’s central bank surprised investors by lowering borrowing costs for the first time since last August. The decision was announced days after top Chinese officials held a twice-a-decade economic policy meeting that centered on ways to kick-start China’s economic growth.
The U.S. stock market tumbled on Friday due to the IT outage that affected Microsoft systems worldwide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to finish the week in positive territory, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.0% and the NASDAQ retreated 3.6%. ![]()
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Housing starts rose in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.353 million. Although this was better than expected, housing production is still lagging behind demand, which is expected to keep prices elevated. ![]()
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Total building permits jumped 3.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.446 million, but the increase was driven by permits for multifamily developments, including apartments and condos. Permits for single family units were down 2.3%. ![]()
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Meanwhile, mortgage applications for the week ending on July 13 increased by 3.9% from the prior week, boosted by a recent drop in mortgage rates. ![]()
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Import prices were flat in June following a 0.2% decline in May. Excluding oil, export prices were up 0.2%. Import prices dropped 0.5% in June after a 0.7% decline in May. Excluding agricultural products, export prices were down 0.6%. ![]()
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Retail sales remained flat in June, partially due to a decline in auto sales related to the CDK global cyberattack and lower gas prices. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month. ![]()
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Total industrial production rose more than expected in June, following a 0.9% increase in May. The positive sales and production readings pushed the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for second quarter to 2.7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate). ![]()
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On the other hand, the Conference Board Leading Indicator index continued to trend down, contracting 0.2% following a 0.4% decline in May. ![]()
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Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 13 increased more than expected to 243,000. Continuing jobless claims increased by 20,000 to 1.867 million, the highest level since November 2021. @Chmura Economics & Analytics
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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