Economic forecasts,
for the greater Seattle area.
Consider us your research center, providing you answers in easy to understand language and charts.
Established in 1993, The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a quarterly report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University which acquired the publication in 2017 from its founders, Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.
The report and website are designed for business executives, marketing directors, investors, government managers, and researchers who need a professional and objective view on the economic prospects for the Puget Sound region (King County, Kitsap County, Pierce County, and Snohomish County).
Our goal is to provide accurate and well-reasoned forecasts for the region as well as clear and insightful observations on important developments in the economy.
In-Depth Regional Economic Outlook
The first issue of the
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster,
a quarterly report,
was published in December 1993.
Each report contains a summary forecast, in-depth discussion of the regional outlook, forecasts and analyses of retail sales and construction and real estate, a special topic (e.g., China and Population Change), a detailed forecast table, and the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
To facilitate research and analysis on the regional economy, every issue of the regional economic report is archived as a downloadable PDF file in the Subscriber Area. A comprehensive Subject Index of the archived reports has been developed to aid in the retrieval of information.
Reports are posted to the web site one to two weeks before the printed copy is mailed.
Sample Report – Data, Trade and Trends [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.
Additional Features
In addition to the Quarterly Report,
we regularly publish
Additional Feature Reports
Breaking News
What We Are Following in the News
That downbeat mood puts a damper on momentum built in recent weeks as mortgage rates slid to one of the lowest levels in years and home price growth slowed. Sales of previously owned homes in December reached their strongest pace in two years, and new-home sales also rose to 2023 levels over the past few months. https://buff.ly/hwd5I6Y
An index of market conditions from the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo decreased 2 points to 37 in January, its first decline since August. That fell short of the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A value below 50 means more builders see conditions as poor than good. https://buff.ly/VGDGXVq
The 10-year US Treasury note’s yield is headed for a fifth straight week of minimal change, rivaling its longest stretch of inertia in the past two decades. Since 2006, the median weekly range for 10-year yields has been 16 basis points. For the past five weeks, it’s been less than 10 basis points, the longest comparable stretch since 2020.
Many working Americans will get larger-than-usual tax refunds in a few weeks, thanks to new measures such as no tax on tips and overtime pay included in President Donald Trump’s signature economic policy bill passed last year. The key questions now are the ultimate size of the refunds and their potential impact on US consumer spending. Wells Fargo economists reckon the average refund to households will be up 18% to $3,750 this year — an increase of about $570. This broadly aligns with estimates from the Tax Foundation, which estimated taxpayers can expect $300 to $1,000 more than in a typical year, on average. Quantifying the impact requires some digging into what types of households are receiving the money, as lower-income families have a higher tendency to spend unexpected money. Overall, they anticipate tax measures in the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act will boost consumption by $90 billion this year, adding about 0.3% to 2026 GDP.
Questions? We Love Questions!
We receive a wide-range of questions every day and would love to hear yours. Questions lead to data and data should lead to better questions.
Special Topics
Special topics in each report
intended to increase the
reader’s understanding of
how the Puget Sound economy works
Past topics include regional growth, labor productivity, demographic trends, inflation, multipliers, entrepreneurs, and state and local taxes.
Web site subscribers currently have access to more than fifty special topics. Here are four examples drawn from the Special Topic Archive:
Stream Flow [Volume 27, Number 2, June 2019]
Is Traffic Real? [Volume 27, Number 1, March 2019]
Labor Force and Population [Volume 26, Number 4, December 2018]
Forest Fires [Volume 26, Number 3, September 2018]
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