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The 10-year US Treasury note’s yield is headed for a fifth straight week of minimal change, rivaling its longest stretch of inertia in the past two decades. Since 2006, the median weekly range for 10-year yields has been 16 basis points. For the past five weeks, it’s been less than 10 basis points, the longest comparable stretch since 2020.
Many working Americans will get larger-than-usual tax refunds in a few weeks, thanks to new measures such as no tax on tips and overtime pay included in President Donald Trump’s signature economic policy bill passed last year. The key questions now are the ultimate size of the refunds and their potential impact on US consumer spending. Wells Fargo economists reckon the average refund to households will be up 18% to $3,750 this year — an increase of about $570. This broadly aligns with estimates from the Tax Foundation, which estimated taxpayers can expect $300 to $1,000 more than in a typical year, on average. Quantifying the impact requires some digging into what types of households are receiving the money, as lower-income families have a higher tendency to spend unexpected money. Overall, they anticipate tax measures in the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act will boost consumption by $90 billion this year, adding about 0.3% to 2026 GDP.
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