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People lob interesting questions to us by email and in our many public presentations (yes, you can book our roadshow). Today we landed questions about the floated $2,000 tariff rebates that would be funded by the "massive" income projections. Now, the math here becomes REALLY important as does the suspension of disbelief that many of the underlying assumptions won't change. But, lets look at some numbers. First, income - over the next decade an estimated $2.5 trillion may come in. Keyword: DECADE But, it is not that simple -- it actually may be closer to $3.3 trillion gross but then net out against other retaliatory tariffs landing us somewhere in the 2 - 2.5 trillion. But again, this is over a ten year period and assumes no one tinkers with rates, spending, manufacturing, etc. (ahem, big ifs) On an annual basis, we are talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 billion in "extra" tax revenue per year (smoothed). In context, the 2025 Federal budget deficit was penciled at $1.8 trillion. So, quite a bit larger than the "extra" revenue. (billions and trillions being what they are) Now we come to the expense. $2000 to households with some form of household income limit. Not everyone will get them. In states with higher average wages, fewer people will. The expense for this would be around $600 billion. So, twice the income, so more debt. But, that would be a one-time thing, right? So, the remaining eight years of an extra $300B would be around $2.4T or just slightly more than a single year of the current annual deficit -- but over 8 years and, again, unlikely to be consistent. Bottom line here is that within the talking points the time periods get conflated taking credit for 10 years of suspect total income but talking about it as if it was all in a single year. It is like looking at buying a house today based on your projected lifetime earnings.
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