The US economy is not en route to a recession, with growth to be supported by a few key tailwinds. S&P's base case is for another year of close-to-potential real GDP growth in 2026. Various fiscal tailwinds include personal tax cuts, elevated refunds, and rising federal spending on defense and border security. Factors working in the other direction include continued elevated uncertainty, declining spending on structures in the manufacturing sector, and some financial headwinds, including rising corporate credit spreads and an expected decline in equity values.
U.S. selected services total revenue for the third quarter of 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $6,119.4 billion, an increase of 2.4 percent (+/- 0.4 percent) from the second quarter of 2025 and up 7.2 percent (+/- 0.6 percent) from the third quarter of 2024. The first quarter of 2025 to second quarter of 2025 percentage change was revised from 2.2 percent (+/- 0.4 percent) to 2.3 percent (+/- 0.4 percent). 3rd Qtr 2025: +2.4 % Change 2nd Qtr 2025 (r): +2.3 % Change
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