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What We Are Following in the News

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased. On November 19, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent, up from 4.1 percent on November 17.

Americans have grown increasingly concerned about job security. A Harris Poll for Bloomberg News conducted on Oct. 23-25 showed 55% of employed Americans are worried about losing their job. https://buff.ly/qWCisPw

US companies shed 2,500 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended Nov. 1, according to data released Tuesday by ADP Research. Separate data posted by the Trump administration on the Labor Department website showed initial applications for jobless benefits totaled 232,000 in the week ended Oct. 18—roughly in line with the level of claims in mid-September.

New orders for manufactured goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $612.0 billion. August 2025: +1.4° % Change July 2025 (r): -1.3° % Change

The U.S. office vacancy rate is 14.1%, which is near a record high, according to real-estate data firm CoStar. Of the 12 largest markets the firm tracks, five are at their highest levels in 25 years and the others are just below. Those stubbornly high vacancies reflect a crucial difference between the current slump and previous ones: This one isn’t cyclical; it’s the result of structural changes in the workplace, namely the staying power of remote and hybrid work. https://buff.ly/3ugVSaw

NPR's Planet Money takes a dive on the 50 year mortgage with the pros and cons in a great discussion that is worth a read. https://buff.ly/WY7M8ph