Commentary

WWU Center for Economic and Business Research️ 7 hours ago

Markets ended last week mixed despite the end of the government shutdown, as traders and investors prepare for the upcoming influx of data releases to assess what those releases mean for the Fed’s rate cut cycle. Additionally, tech stocks were further suppressed due to ongoing uncertainty around AI valuations. Treasury yields were up across most maturities as markets backed away from expectations of near-term rate cuts and continued to grapple with concerns about persistent inflation and elevated federal borrowing needs. The NFIB small business optimism index fell 0.6 points to 98.2 in October but remained above its long-term average of 98. Although small businesses are resilient, they remain concerned about declining profit margins and deteriorating labor quality. The MBA mortgage applications index increased 0.6% with purchase applications rising 6% showing some strength returning to homebuyers. Since 1976, there have been 20 funding gaps in the federal government, approximately half leading to shutdowns with federal employees furloughed. Last week, the longest shutdown on record, at 43 days, ended. In the aftermath, it is clear that there will be significant disruptions to data releases scheduled during that shutdown. With the BLS, BEA, and Census still working to reschedule or reconstruct missed reports, the public should expect gaps in October data and ongoing uncertainty in the calendar of releases through year end. @Chmura Economics & Analytics

WWU Center for Economic and Business Research️ 9 hours ago

Mortgage rates in the US aren’t going to fall. “Would-be homeowners shouldn’t necessarily be putting big hopes on mortgage rates coming down as the US central bank keeps cutting rates, according to a post by the Atlanta Fed this week.” https://buff.ly/8fmYFUq

WWU Center for Economic and Business Research️ 9 hours ago

US stocks will underperform for the next decade, says Goldman Sachs. “They expect the S&P 500 to achieve annual returns of 6.5% in the coming 10 years, the weakest among all regions. Emerging markets are projected to be strongest, at 10.9% a year." https://buff.ly/pARhs7p

WWU Center for Economic and Business Research️ 11 hours ago

Janet Yellen Says the US Is Undermining Its Economic Success. The former Treasury secretary warns that Trump’s attacks on the rule of law, the Fed and universities threaten the foundations of American prosperity. https://buff.ly/UlXuWKX

WWU Center for Economic and Business Research️ 13 hours ago

This Week: Wednesday: The Fed releases the minutes of its Oct. 28-29 policy meeting, which could shed light on the debate over whether to cut rates. Thursday: The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out the long-delayed—and highly anticipated—September jobs report.

WWU Center for Economic and Business Research️ 15 hours ago

There’s a puzzling dynamic emerging in the American economy. On one hand, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to set record highs and economic growth data is seemingly robust. But on the other hand, consumer confidence has hit its lowest point in a decade. https://buff.ly/pnrZUFJ