Archive

20 Mar2018 Stimulus Still Visible in Forecast

The past 30 days have been exciting between major news regarding and impacting Amazon and Boeing and continuing developments in policy at both the federal and state level there has been most things to consider as we construct and analyze the forecast. We wish this was all there is to consider but the list of things to watch continues to make it complicated. This quarter, we see a small uptick in our key metrics despite background noise that is making some nervous. In the pages ahead we explore: the retail apocalypse, the quickly swinging housing indexes and the economics of traffic. In addition, we look at the rise in online retail employment and the greater Washington State forecast.

Volume: 27 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Is Traffic Real?

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 DecShaky Ground – December 2018

This time of year we are asked to do a lot of economic forecast and year in review talks throughout the state. It is interesting to talk with so many business leaders and policy makers as they consider the road behind and ahead. In preparing for these talks, and the Forecaster, we are reminded that much of the data we all rely on is subject to revisions, sometimes substantial, which makes presenting it as facts sometimes uncomfortable. We have a lot to be thankful for this year continued expansion, low unemployment, and stable inflation. Throw in family, friends and food and you have yourself a party. In this issue we explore many different attributes to the expansion, employment, and potential impacts to our region. You know Amazon, Boeing and housing are on our minds. We are launching a social media presence. In January we will email out links for you to follow us on your preferred social media platform. We read a lot of interesting articles and analyses each week and will start sharing out the best of this content in the New Year! From all of us at Western Washington University, we wish you the very best of the season.

Volume: 26 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Labor Force and Population

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 MarEconomy May Be Reaching Its Limits

As we wrap up the first quarter of the year it is a good time to take stock of what happened in 2017. Last year was a strong year by most measures, but as we have noted, the economy may be reaching its limits. Some factors are cooling off from their highs seen in 2016, such as employment growth. Unemployment continues to fall even lower locally than it is nationally, begging the question of how low the natural rate of unemployment is in this economy ñ and who is actually considered to be unemployed. Inflation has the Fed's attention. Later this year they will decide if the economy is reaching the point where rates are raised four times this year as they're hinting rather than three.

Volume: 26 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Inside Unemployment

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

20 DecRegional Economy on the Same Path – December 2017

The outlook remains positive. Nonetheless, we continue to wonder when we'll see the peak in local employment at Amazon, when and how much growth we'll see at Microsoft, and what Boeing may do with its next new plane We also highlight in this issue differences in economic activity and demographics across counties in Washington. The dramatic job growth since 2010 in the Puget Sound area stands in stark contrast to the slow growth in many parts of the state. While some urban areas like Vancouver and Bellingham have seen solid employment growth in recent years, the rate of growth has been slower than in Seattle and the drivers have differed as well. Differences in economic activity have led to interesting differences in how counties are aging.

Volume: 25 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Place Matters

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

16 DecA Lump of Coal

If you sense some frustration with this outlook, you are right. Based on the behavior of the national economy this year, it deserves a lump of coal in its holiday stocking.

Volume: 21 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Economic Timeline

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

12 DecNot Over Yet

People went to the polls in November with raised hopes that the election would put an end to the misery brought about by the Great Recession...But instead we may get another downturn.

Volume: 20 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Estimating Population

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 DecA Bit More Patience

Economists have not given up forecasting recessions, but maybe they should...Forecasting recoveries, on the other hand, seems to be a piece of cake.

Volume: 17 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 MarWhat Matters

Did Airbus really win last year's skirmish over airplane orders? Excluding cancellations and conversions, the European airplane maker claimed that it booked 1,111 firm orders, 82 more than Boeing.

Volume: 14 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: California

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 DecLooking Up

Economic conditions in the Puget Sound region have been dismal for three years. As if on a steep slide with a long run-out, employment plunged from 1,735,000 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2000 to 1,658,300 in the second quarter of 2002 and then bumped along sideways to 1,656,400 in the third quarter of 2003.

Volume: 11 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 SepMake That One Dip

If history is a guide, bet on a double-dip recession for the nation, since four of the last six recessions have had two downturns. And new government numbers, revealing that the 2001 recession was deeper and longer than first thought and that the recovery may be stalling, appear to have raised the odds.

Volume: 10 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: The 1990's

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen