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12 JunJune 2019 Newsletter – Data, Trade and Trends

With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.

Volume: 27 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title: Not Yet

Special Topic Title: Stream Flow

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 MarEconomy May Be Reaching Its Limits

As we wrap up the first quarter of the year it is a good time to take stock of what happened in 2017. Last year was a strong year by most measures, but as we have noted, the economy may be reaching its limits. Some factors are cooling off from their highs seen in 2016, such as employment growth. Unemployment continues to fall even lower locally than it is nationally, begging the question of how low the natural rate of unemployment is in this economy ñ and who is actually considered to be unemployed. Inflation has the Fed's attention. Later this year they will decide if the economy is reaching the point where rates are raised four times this year as they're hinting rather than three.

Volume: 26 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Inside Unemployment

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty