Archive

15 JunWading Through the Uncertainty – June 2020

As we pass the halfway mark for 2020, this is not the year any of us would have predicted. The challenge with forecasting the unknown is the very fact that at any point anything can change the underlying assumptions – and right now as a region and as nation we are questioning many underlying assumptions. Coronavirus, recession, and the shape of the recovery have dominated our work with the Forecaster. Sprinkle in structural changes into consumer behavior, how employers may manage their employees, and the latest news from either the tech sector or Boeing and you have yourself a ballgame. As we have spent time with the media and countless presentations to groups (all online) it comes down to this – it is bad. The numbers from Q2 will look worse than Q1 and that makes sense. The question is duration. How much of the recovery will we see by Q4 and how much will wait until 2021? In the pages ahead we answer those questions. The short answer – it looks very promising.

Volume: 28 - Number: 0

Leading Index Title: A Long Way Down

Special Topic Title: An Economic Crisis

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

16 MarAnd the Model Says? – March 2020

As we prepared the final edits for this edition of the Forecaster, we began to feel a little like we could easily be in a position to never stop writing and inserting entirely new columns. The end of February and beginning of March have been something. Just when we thought Coronavirus would steal the economic show for a while, Russia and Saudi Arabia decide to pull the floor out of the oil market. There is quite a bit to be watching; that is for sure. We have reminded people a lot in the past four weeks that the market is not the economy. The economic numbers look relatively good - well, at least as they have been. Things continue to slow down. We launched a podcast (economists are seldom early adopters) this past quarter. We record approximately four weeks after we send the publication to print. We use these 30 minutes to expand on content and to update where we can. Look for it on our website. Be sure to follow us on social media! We post a wide range of stories every day that we think you should be reading.

Volume: 28 - Number: 0

Leading Index Title: Not All is as it Seems

Special Topic Title: Economic Vaccines

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty