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15 SepFor Pessimists, We’re Pretty Optimistic – September 2021

Optimism and economist do not often go together. Economists tend to be fence straddlers using both hands to equivocate on the moment. In this edition, we find ourselves not equivocating as much. We think a lot of the existing forecasts seem a little too optimistic – including ours. The variants have our attention as does the COVID forecasts for Washington. In the classic car trip voice, we hear all of you asking, “are we there yet?” and the truth is – almost, just a little bit further. The mid-term and long-term forecasts look good, it is the short-term that we find ourselves concerned with. Too many variables have to go right for us not to be. Variants, vaccinations, policies, supply chain, labor market… the list is immense but each is making progress. We all just need to collectively hold it together for just a little bit longer; the exit is coming up.

Volume: 29 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title: Economic tasseology

Special Topic Title: Economics on Fire and The Inevitable Electric Future

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty
  • Bethany King

16 MarAnd the Model Says? – March 2020

As we prepared the final edits for this edition of the Forecaster, we began to feel a little like we could easily be in a position to never stop writing and inserting entirely new columns. The end of February and beginning of March have been something. Just when we thought Coronavirus would steal the economic show for a while, Russia and Saudi Arabia decide to pull the floor out of the oil market. There is quite a bit to be watching; that is for sure. We have reminded people a lot in the past four weeks that the market is not the economy. The economic numbers look relatively good - well, at least as they have been. Things continue to slow down. We launched a podcast (economists are seldom early adopters) this past quarter. We record approximately four weeks after we send the publication to print. We use these 30 minutes to expand on content and to update where we can. Look for it on our website. Be sure to follow us on social media! We post a wide range of stories every day that we think you should be reading.

Volume: 28 - Number: 0

Leading Index Title: Not All is as it Seems

Special Topic Title: Economic Vaccines

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty