Archive

15 SepLong Shot

Grading a forecasting record based on short-term predictions is akin to cheating. How far off can one be on a one-year-ahead forecast?

Volume: 24 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Agglomeration

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

13 JunMixed Messages

When an economy is smoothly rolling along, it is fairly easy to forecast. At the start of the recovery in 2009, two potential developments seemed likely: the U.S. economy would rebound slowly because of restrictive federal fiscal policies; and the Puget Sound region would outpace the nation because of thousands of new jobs at Boeing and Amazon.com...Now that the recovery is getting longer in the tooth, questions are arising about its future course.

Volume: 24 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Import Substitution

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 DecA Lump of Coal

If you sense some frustration with this outlook, you are right. Based on the behavior of the national economy this year, it deserves a lump of coal in its holiday stocking.

Volume: 21 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Economic Timeline

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

11 SepUncertainty

Uncertainty is what makes economic forecasters look for another job. It is also the reason why forecasting is fun.

Volume: 22 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: The Jobless

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 MarOr Not to Be

"To be, or not to be, that is the question." Shakespeare's line from Hamlet keeps coming to mind whenever there is talk of recession. In February, Global Insight called for a short and shallow downturn for the nation, while the Blue Chip panel predicted a narrow escape.

Volume: 16 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Michigan Recession

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 FebA Real Letdown

The Puget Sound economy does not have a will to do good or bad. Nevertheless, as we become mired in a recession, it is hard to escape the feeling that the economy has let us down. The things that we once admired about the economy--Boeing, high-technology, international trade, and energy prices--have seemingly turned their backs on us.

Volume: 10 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Forecasting Methods

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen