Grading a forecasting record based on short-term predictions is akin to cheating. How far off can one be on a one-year-ahead forecast?
Download the NewsletterVolume: 24 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Agglomeration
Authors:
Recessions often follow a predictable course. The 2001-03 recession, triggered by the dot-com bust and the 9/11 aerospace downturn, is an example...The current downturn is a different animal and not just because of its highly uncertain track.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 17 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Bubbles and Transparency
Authors:
End of year is a fitting time to sum things up. Economic statistics for 2006 have not been finalized, but so far the numbers look good. The 3.5 percent gain in Puget Sound employment, if it holds up, will be the best showing in eight years.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 14 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Population Change
Authors:
Typically, it takes more than one thing to lift an economy up or drag it down. In 1997, boosted by strong national growth, a cyclical upturn at Boeing, and the dot-com boom, Puget Sound employment jumped 5.1 percent.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 13 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Entrepreneurs
Authors:
One thing about the bottom of a recession, the prospects are good. After shedding five percent of its employment during the slump, the Puget Sound region finally got things turned around in the middle of 2003.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 13 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Socio-Economic Rankings
Authors:
Despite bumps along the way, the Puget Sound economy has enjoyed a good ride. Since 1970 employment has expanded at an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, faster than the 2.1 percent national rate.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 7 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting
Authors:
In spite of much turmoil--a volatile stock market, the Asian flu, red ink at Boeing, and anti-trust investigations at Microsoft--nothing has changed, or so it seems.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 6 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Housing Affordability
Authors:
At the risk of being accused of shirking our duty, we present pretty much the same forecast as last time. In fact, the projected Puget Sound employment growth rates are exactly the same: 5.0 percent in 1997 and 3.5 percent in 1998.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 5 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: International Trade
Authors:
