Archive

20 MarEconomy May Be Reaching Its Limits

As we wrap up the first quarter of the year it is a good time to take stock of what happened in 2017. Last year was a strong year by most measures, but as we have noted, the economy may be reaching its limits. Some factors are cooling off from their highs seen in 2016, such as employment growth. Unemployment continues to fall even lower locally than it is nationally, begging the question of how low the natural rate of unemployment is in this economy ñ and who is actually considered to be unemployed. Inflation has the Fed's attention. Later this year they will decide if the economy is reaching the point where rates are raised four times this year as they're hinting rather than three.

Volume: 26 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Inside Unemployment

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

20 DecRegional Economy on the Same Path – December 2017

The outlook remains positive. Nonetheless, we continue to wonder when we'll see the peak in local employment at Amazon, when and how much growth we'll see at Microsoft, and what Boeing may do with its next new plane We also highlight in this issue differences in economic activity and demographics across counties in Washington. The dramatic job growth since 2010 in the Puget Sound area stands in stark contrast to the slow growth in many parts of the state. While some urban areas like Vancouver and Bellingham have seen solid employment growth in recent years, the rate of growth has been slower than in Seattle and the drivers have differed as well. Differences in economic activity have led to interesting differences in how counties are aging.

Volume: 25 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Place Matters

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

16 SepTapping the Brakes

When a driver taps the brakes, the car slows down but remains under control. The workings of an economy are not so simple. If the economy decelerates in response to an oil price shock, for example, the slowdown may trigger a reaction that further impedes its progress.

Volume: 14 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Taxable Retail Sales

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen