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15 SepFor Pessimists, We’re Pretty Optimistic – September 2021

Optimism and economist do not often go together. Economists tend to be fence straddlers using both hands to equivocate on the moment. In this edition, we find ourselves not equivocating as much. We think a lot of the existing forecasts seem a little too optimistic – including ours. The variants have our attention as does the COVID forecasts for Washington. In the classic car trip voice, we hear all of you asking, “are we there yet?” and the truth is – almost, just a little bit further. The mid-term and long-term forecasts look good, it is the short-term that we find ourselves concerned with. Too many variables have to go right for us not to be. Variants, vaccinations, policies, supply chain, labor market… the list is immense but each is making progress. We all just need to collectively hold it together for just a little bit longer; the exit is coming up.

Volume: 29 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title: Economic tasseology

Special Topic Title: Economics on Fire and The Inevitable Electric Future

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty
  • Bethany King

15 JunWading Through the Uncertainty – June 2020

As we pass the halfway mark for 2020, this is not the year any of us would have predicted. The challenge with forecasting the unknown is the very fact that at any point anything can change the underlying assumptions – and right now as a region and as nation we are questioning many underlying assumptions. Coronavirus, recession, and the shape of the recovery have dominated our work with the Forecaster. Sprinkle in structural changes into consumer behavior, how employers may manage their employees, and the latest news from either the tech sector or Boeing and you have yourself a ballgame. As we have spent time with the media and countless presentations to groups (all online) it comes down to this – it is bad. The numbers from Q2 will look worse than Q1 and that makes sense. The question is duration. How much of the recovery will we see by Q4 and how much will wait until 2021? In the pages ahead we answer those questions. The short answer – it looks very promising.

Volume: 28 - Number: 0

Leading Index Title: A Long Way Down

Special Topic Title: An Economic Crisis

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty