Wading Through the Uncertainty – June 2020

As we pass the halfway mark for 2020, this is not the year any of us would have predicted. The challenge with forecasting the unknown is the very fact that at any point anything can change the underlying assumptions – and right now as a region and as nation we are questioning many underlying assumptions. Coronavirus, recession, and the shape of the recovery have dominated our work with the Forecaster. Sprinkle in structural changes into consumer behavior, how employers may manage their employees, and the latest news from either the tech sector or Boeing and you have yourself a ballgame. As we have spent time with the media and countless presentations to groups (all online) it comes down to this – it is bad. The numbers from Q2 will look worse than Q1 and that makes sense. The question is duration. How much of the recovery will we see by Q4 and how much will wait until 2021? In the pages ahead we answer those questions. The short answer – it looks very promising.

Volume: 28 - Number: 0

Leading Index Title: A Long Way Down

Special Topic Title: An Economic Crisis


  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

Make That One Dip

If history is a guide, bet on a double-dip recession for the nation, since four of the last six recessions have had two downturns. And new government numbers, revealing that the 2001 recession was deeper and longer than first thought and that the recovery may be stalling, appear to have raised the odds.

Volume: 10 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: The 1990's


  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen