Archive

20 SepDown but Not Out – September 2019

Oh, Fall time! The leaves, the crisp air, a time when everything seems to slow down. It appears that the mood is impacting the forecasts (national, state and regional) with a significant mix of declining indices. As we prepare this edition of the Forecaster new tariffs are likely to raise the prices of everyday items for consumers. Consumer spending (and confidence) from retail to homes are likely to be impacted. Much like the fall weather you will notice both sun and rain in our updated forecasts: declines in a number of areas for both the Puget Sound area and the State with pockets of increases to balance it out (somewhat). Should you panic? Signs are mixed as they say but we do not think so. We have had our eyes on a lot of moving parts this past quarter. If you follow us on your favorite social media feed, you have seen us call out many of these from airplanes to the tech sector and net migration trends to automation. There is a lot to pay attention to. You rely on the forecast and in this issue, we analyze just how reliable the forecast has been short story, much better than the weather forecast. We also explore how technological changes may impact labor data. Grab your galoshes and dive in there is a lot to explore.

Volume: 27 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title:

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

12 JunJune 2019 Newsletter – Data, Trade and Trends

With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.

Volume: 27 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title: Not Yet

Special Topic Title: Stream Flow

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 DecShaky Ground – December 2018

This time of year we are asked to do a lot of economic forecast and year in review talks throughout the state. It is interesting to talk with so many business leaders and policy makers as they consider the road behind and ahead. In preparing for these talks, and the Forecaster, we are reminded that much of the data we all rely on is subject to revisions, sometimes substantial, which makes presenting it as facts sometimes uncomfortable. We have a lot to be thankful for this year continued expansion, low unemployment, and stable inflation. Throw in family, friends and food and you have yourself a party. In this issue we explore many different attributes to the expansion, employment, and potential impacts to our region. You know Amazon, Boeing and housing are on our minds. We are launching a social media presence. In January we will email out links for you to follow us on your preferred social media platform. We read a lot of interesting articles and analyses each week and will start sharing out the best of this content in the New Year! From all of us at Western Washington University, we wish you the very best of the season.

Volume: 26 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Labor Force and Population

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 DecRegional Economy on the Same Path – December 2017

The outlook remains positive. Nonetheless, we continue to wonder when we'll see the peak in local employment at Amazon, when and how much growth we'll see at Microsoft, and what Boeing may do with its next new plane We also highlight in this issue differences in economic activity and demographics across counties in Washington. The dramatic job growth since 2010 in the Puget Sound area stands in stark contrast to the slow growth in many parts of the state. While some urban areas like Vancouver and Bellingham have seen solid employment growth in recent years, the rate of growth has been slower than in Seattle and the drivers have differed as well. Differences in economic activity have led to interesting differences in how counties are aging.

Volume: 25 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Place Matters

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

16 JunThank You

The Puget Sound region has a habit of stumbling into deep recessions. Relatively speaking, in every downturn since 1969, it has suffered a greater employment loss than the nation. Fortunately, since robust recoveries have more than compensated for the backsliding, the region has outpaced the nation in the long run. Over the last five decades, regional jobs have tripled, while national jobs have doubled.

Volume: 25 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Rules of Behavior

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 MarBuckle Up

Whenever a pilot encounters turbulent air, the seat-belt sign goes on. Even in mild disturbances, one cannot rule out an unexpected drop in altitude. This might explain why economists have the reputation of predicting "six out of the last two recessions." Like pilots, they tend to be overly cautious, knowing the potential danger of falling.

Volume: 24 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

17 DecChanges in the Wind

Economists are often called "the dismal scientists" and for good reason. When the economy is expanding at a rapid pace--as it is now in the Puget Sound region--they start fretting about the next recession.

Volume: 23 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: State and Local Finances

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 JunThe Fiscal Cliff

Politicians excel at debating issues and then doing nothing about them...But the Obama administration and Congress have come to the edge of what has been called the "fiscal cliff," and this time there is no backing away.

Volume: 20 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Economic Resilience

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 SepEnd in Sight

This decade has been "just one damn thing after another." Who would have imagined our string of bad luck: the dot-com implosion, 9/11, the housing bubble and credit crunch, and soaring energy prices? Or was it bad luck?

Volume: 17 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 FebA Real Letdown

The Puget Sound economy does not have a will to do good or bad. Nevertheless, as we become mired in a recession, it is hard to escape the feeling that the economy has let us down. The things that we once admired about the economy--Boeing, high-technology, international trade, and energy prices--have seemingly turned their backs on us.

Volume: 10 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Forecasting Methods

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen