Archive

16 MarBuckle Up

Whenever a pilot encounters turbulent air, the seat-belt sign goes on. Even in mild disturbances, one cannot rule out an unexpected drop in altitude. This might explain why economists have the reputation of predicting "six out of the last two recessions." Like pilots, they tend to be overly cautious, knowing the potential danger of falling.

Volume: 24 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 SepTapping the Brakes

When a driver taps the brakes, the car slows down but remains under control. The workings of an economy are not so simple. If the economy decelerates in response to an oil price shock, for example, the slowdown may trigger a reaction that further impedes its progress.

Volume: 14 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Taxable Retail Sales

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen