Grading a forecasting record based on short-term predictions is akin to cheating. How far off can one be on a one-year-ahead forecast?
Download the NewsletterVolume: 24 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Agglomeration
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In a prelude to next year's general election, politicians put on a costly show this summer. After a lengthy debate--one that could easily have been mistaken for a farce--Congress raised the federal debt ceiling at the very last minute.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 19 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Washington Aluminum Industry
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At the end of a recession, when the economy is in flux, numbers can get squirrely...Keeping in mind the shakiness of preliminary job estimates, there was potentially goods news in ESD's March labor report.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 18 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: South Carolina
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We can gauge a recession in several ways--the decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the number of lost jobs, and the rise in unemployment. An interesting alternative is to express it in terms of time.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 17 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure
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In the middle of a presidential election there is no need to remind us that we could be misled by economic statistics...As a rule, we should always exercise caution with economic information, since it can fools of us at anytime.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 16 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Economic Bubbles
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When a driver taps the brakes, the car slows down but remains under control. The workings of an economy are not so simple. If the economy decelerates in response to an oil price shock, for example, the slowdown may trigger a reaction that further impedes its progress.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 14 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Taxable Retail Sales
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Did Airbus really win last year's skirmish over airplane orders? Excluding cancellations and conversions, the European airplane maker claimed that it booked 1,111 firm orders, 82 more than Boeing.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 14 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: California
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Even armed with high-powered models, economic forecasters sometimes get it wrong. The Blue Chip panel of economists failed to predict the national recession in 2001. In fact, they did not even recognize it until it was almost over. We fared no better in forecasting the collapse of the Puget Sound economy.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 13 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: The Leading Index
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Mercifully, the Iraqi conflict came to a quick end. However, the anticipated post-war surge in the U.S. economy has yet to materialize. Consumer and investor confidence is rising, but many economic indicators, such as industrial production and employment, are falling.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 11 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: NAICS
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In spite of an unexpected decline in employment this spring, Blue Chip economists contend that the "odds of a (national) recession this year or next are modest." Evidence supporting this opinion includes a confident consumer, lower mortgage rates, a weak dollar (lifting exports), and strong capital spending.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 3 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Changing Demographics
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