Down but Not Out – September 2019

Oh, Fall time! The leaves, the crisp air, a time when everything seems to slow down. It appears that the mood is impacting the forecasts (national, state and regional) with a significant mix of declining indices. As we prepare this edition of the Forecaster new tariffs are likely to raise the prices of everyday items for consumers. Consumer spending (and confidence) from retail to homes are likely to be impacted. Much like the fall weather you will notice both sun and rain in our updated forecasts: declines in a number of areas for both the Puget Sound area and the State with pockets of increases to balance it out (somewhat). Should you panic? Signs are mixed as they say but we do not think so. We have had our eyes on a lot of moving parts this past quarter. If you follow us on your favorite social media feed, you have seen us call out many of these from airplanes to the tech sector and net migration trends to automation. There is a lot to pay attention to. You rely on the forecast and in this issue, we analyze just how reliable the forecast has been short story, much better than the weather forecast. We also explore how technological changes may impact labor data. Grab your galoshes and dive in there is a lot to explore.

Volume: 27 - Number: 3

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  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty