Archive

15 JunWading Through the Uncertainty – June 2020

As we pass the halfway mark for 2020, this is not the year any of us would have predicted. The challenge with forecasting the unknown is the very fact that at any point anything can change the underlying assumptions – and right now as a region and as nation we are questioning many underlying assumptions. Coronavirus, recession, and the shape of the recovery have dominated our work with the Forecaster. Sprinkle in structural changes into consumer behavior, how employers may manage their employees, and the latest news from either the tech sector or Boeing and you have yourself a ballgame. As we have spent time with the media and countless presentations to groups (all online) it comes down to this – it is bad. The numbers from Q2 will look worse than Q1 and that makes sense. The question is duration. How much of the recovery will we see by Q4 and how much will wait until 2021? In the pages ahead we answer those questions. The short answer – it looks very promising.

Volume: 28 - Number: 0

Leading Index Title: A Long Way Down

Special Topic Title: An Economic Crisis

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 OctThank You – October 2017

One theme in this Outlook is the more things change, the more they stay the same. It's a new quarter with plenty of developments. From Harvey and Irma to the security problems at Equifax, as well as the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and geopolitical risks with North Korea, we have plenty of new things to consider.

Volume: 25 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: The Cost of Housing

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

16 MarLabor’s Turn

The Great Recession may be over, but it continues to cause suffering. Fifteen million people remain unemployed in the nation...An unfortunate characteristic of economic recoveries is that they occur in stages. Business output typically expands months before employers resume hiring.

Volume: 19 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Apportionment

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 JunA Difficult Recovery

Recessions and recoveries come in all shapes and sizes. The Boeing Bust (1969-71) was a classic V-shaped recession.

Volume: 18 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Federal Debt

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 MarAre We There Yet?

At the end of a recession, when the economy is in flux, numbers can get squirrely...Keeping in mind the shakiness of preliminary job estimates, there was potentially goods news in ESD's March labor report.

Volume: 18 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: South Carolina

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 DecA Bit More Patience

Economists have not given up forecasting recessions, but maybe they should...Forecasting recoveries, on the other hand, seems to be a piece of cake.

Volume: 17 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 SepEnd in Sight

This decade has been "just one damn thing after another." Who would have imagined our string of bad luck: the dot-com implosion, 9/11, the housing bubble and credit crunch, and soaring energy prices? Or was it bad luck?

Volume: 17 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 JunHow Deep?

We can gauge a recession in several ways--the decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the number of lost jobs, and the rise in unemployment. An interesting alternative is to express it in terms of time.

Volume: 17 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 MarA Different Animal

Recessions often follow a predictable course. The 2001-03 recession, triggered by the dot-com bust and the 9/11 aerospace downturn, is an example...The current downturn is a different animal and not just because of its highly uncertain track.

Volume: 17 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Bubbles and Transparency

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 DecGroping for the Bottom

The National Bureau of Economic Research recently reported that the United States fell into recession at the end of 2007. Now, one year later, the Puget Sound region is in the soup.

Volume: 16 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Great Depression

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen