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Oh, Fall time! The leaves, the crisp air, a time when everything seems to slow down. It appears that the mood is impacting the forecasts (national, state and regional) with a significant mix of declining indices. As we prepare this edition of the Forecaster new tariffs are likely to raise the prices of everyday items for consumers. Consumer spending (and confidence) from retail to homes are likely [READ MORE]

The Sample Newsletter - a copy of the June 2019 Newsletter [READ MORE]

With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and busin [READ MORE]

The past 30 days have been exciting between major news regarding and impacting Amazon and Boeing and continuing developments in policy at both the federal and state level there has been most things to consider as we construct and analyze the forecast. We wish this was all there is to consider but the list of things to watch continues to make it complicated. This quarter, we see a small upti [READ MORE]

One theme in this Outlook is the more things change, the more they stay the same. It's a new quarter with plenty of developments. From Harvey and Irma to the security problems at Equifax, as well as the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and geopolitical risks with North Korea, we have plenty of new things to consider. [READ MORE]

Grading a forecasting record based on short-term predictions is akin to cheating. How far off can one be on a one-year-ahead forecast? [READ MORE]

This decade has been "just one damn thing after another." Who would have imagined our string of bad luck: the dot-com implosion, 9/11, the housing bubble and credit crunch, and soaring energy prices? Or was it bad luck? [READ MORE]

Like it or not, the Puget Sound region has little control over its economic destiny, at least in the short run. World air travel dictates how many commercial jets Boeing will sell. Volatile housing markets in California and Japan generate production swings at Weyerhaeuser lumber mills. The incomes of many Seattle fishermen are made or lost in Alaskan waters. [READ MORE]

While economic analysts trained their eyes on the financial turmoil in Asia, they failed to see an equally significant development at home: the drop in the personal savings rate to zero and the consequent jump in consumption. [READ MORE]