Files containing subject Recession

Thank You - October 2017

One theme in this Outlook is the more things change, the more they stay the same. It's a new quarter with plenty of developments. From Harvey and Irma to the security problems at Equifax, as well as the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and geopolitical risks with North Korea, we have plenty of new things to consider. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 25 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: The Cost of Housing

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty
Labor's Turn

The Great Recession may be over, but it continues to cause suffering. Fifteen million people remain unemployed in the nation...An unfortunate characteristic of economic recoveries is that they occur in stages. Business output typically expands months before employers resume hiring. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 19 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Apportionment

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
A Difficult Recovery

Recessions and recoveries come in all shapes and sizes. The Boeing Bust (1969-71) was a classic V-shaped recession. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 18 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Federal Debt

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
Are We There Yet?

At the end of a recession, when the economy is in flux, numbers can get squirrely...Keeping in mind the shakiness of preliminary job estimates, there was potentially goods news in ESD's March labor report. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 18 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: South Carolina

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
A Bit More Patience

Economists have not given up forecasting recessions, but maybe they should...Forecasting recoveries, on the other hand, seems to be a piece of cake. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 17 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
End in Sight

This decade has been "just one damn thing after another." Who would have imagined our string of bad luck: the dot-com implosion, 9/11, the housing bubble and credit crunch, and soaring energy prices? Or was it bad luck? [READ MORE]

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Volume: 17 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
How Deep?

We can gauge a recession in several ways--the decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the number of lost jobs, and the rise in unemployment. An interesting alternative is to express it in terms of time. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 17 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
A Different Animal

Recessions often follow a predictable course. The 2001-03 recession, triggered by the dot-com bust and the 9/11 aerospace downturn, is an example...The current downturn is a different animal and not just because of its highly uncertain track. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 17 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Bubbles and Transparency

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
Groping for the Bottom

The National Bureau of Economic Research recently reported that the United States fell into recession at the end of 2007. Now, one year later, the Puget Sound region is in the soup. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 16 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Great Depression

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
Or Not to Be

"To be, or not to be, that is the question." Shakespeare's line from Hamlet keeps coming to mind whenever there is talk of recession. In February, Global Insight called for a short and shallow downturn for the nation, while the Blue Chip panel predicted a narrow escape. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 16 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Michigan Recession

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen