Files containing subject regional forecasting

Whenever a pilot encounters turbulent air, the seat-belt sign goes on. Even in mild disturbances, one cannot rule out an unexpected drop in altitude. This might explain why economists have the reputation of predicting "six out of the last two recessions." Like pilots, they tend to be overly cautious, knowing the potential danger of falling. [READ MORE]

"It's the economy, stupid" was a campaign slogan used by Bill Clinton to defeat the incumbent president, George Bush, Sr., in the 1992 election. Now it seems that the catch phrase has been turned on its head. [READ MORE]

Economists have not given up forecasting recessions, but maybe they should...Forecasting recoveries, on the other hand, seems to be a piece of cake. [READ MORE]

Economic conditions in the Puget Sound region have been dismal for three years. As if on a steep slide with a long run-out, employment plunged from 1,735,000 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2000 to 1,658,300 in the second quarter of 2002 and then bumped along sideways to 1,656,400 in the third quarter of 2003. [READ MORE]

Despite bumps along the way, the Puget Sound economy has enjoyed a good ride. Since 1970 employment has expanded at an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, faster than the 2.1 percent national rate. [READ MORE]

There is mounting evidence that the recent jump in interest rates is slowing the national economy. Higher borrowing costs have reduced auto sales and slowed the growth of single-family construction. [READ MORE]