Files containing subject retail sales

Down but Not Out - September 2019

Oh, Fall time! The leaves, the crisp air, a time when everything seems to slow down. It appears that the mood is impacting the forecasts (national, state and regional) with a significant mix of declining indices. As we prepare this edition of the Forecaster new tariffs are likely to raise the prices of everyday items for consumers. Consumer spending (and confidence) from retail to homes are likely [READ MORE]

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Volume: 27 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title:

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty
Sample Newsletter

The Sample Newsletter - a copy of the June 2019 Newsletter [READ MORE]

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Volume: 27 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title:

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty
June 2019 Newsletter - Data, Trade and Trends

With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and busin [READ MORE]

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Volume: 27 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title: Not Yet

Special Topic Title: Stream Flow

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty
Shaky Ground - December 2018

This time of year we are asked to do a lot of economic forecast and year in review talks throughout the state. It is interesting to talk with so many business leaders and policy makers as they consider the road behind and ahead. In preparing for these talks, and the Forecaster, we are reminded that much of the data we all rely on is subject to revisions, sometimes substantial, which makes prese [READ MORE]

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Volume: 26 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Labor Force and Population

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty
Regional Economy on the Same Path - December 2017

The outlook remains positive. Nonetheless, we continue to wonder when we'll see the peak in local employment at Amazon, when and how much growth we'll see at Microsoft, and what Boeing may do with its next new plane We also highlight in this issue differences in economic activity and demographics across counties in Washington. The dramatic job growth since 2010 in the Puget Sound area stands in [READ MORE]

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Volume: 25 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Place Matters

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty
Thank You

The Puget Sound region has a habit of stumbling into deep recessions. Relatively speaking, in every downturn since 1969, it has suffered a greater employment loss than the nation. Fortunately, since robust recoveries have more than compensated for the backsliding, the region has outpaced the nation in the long run. Over the last five decades, regional jobs have tripled, while national jobs have [READ MORE]

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Volume: 25 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Rules of Behavior

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
Buckle Up

Whenever a pilot encounters turbulent air, the seat-belt sign goes on. Even in mild disturbances, one cannot rule out an unexpected drop in altitude. This might explain why economists have the reputation of predicting "six out of the last two recessions." Like pilots, they tend to be overly cautious, knowing the potential danger of falling. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 24 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
Changes in the Wind

Economists are often called "the dismal scientists" and for good reason. When the economy is expanding at a rapid pace--as it is now in the Puget Sound region--they start fretting about the next recession. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 23 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: State and Local Finances

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
The Fiscal Cliff

Politicians excel at debating issues and then doing nothing about them...But the Obama administration and Congress have come to the edge of what has been called the "fiscal cliff," and this time there is no backing away. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 20 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Economic Resilience

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen
Some Encouraging News

As bad as it was, we should not mistake the Great Recession for the Great Depression...Despite the fits and starts of the recovery, there are concrete signs that the Puget Sound economy is on the mend. [READ MORE]

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Volume: 19 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Investment, Capital, and Output

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen