Archive

13 MarA Sensible Forecast – March 2021

Spring is upon us. Birds chirp, plants bloom and we are starting to emerge into a post-pandemic world ever so slowly. As we put this edition to bed, we find ourselves wanting a couple more weeks to better understand the impacts of a huge stimulus, shifts in public policy and the emergence of COVID variants. But alas, no. We do know a lot more than 3 months ago but nagging questions persist. Public policy is becoming a much larger ingredient in the forecast – stimulus, low rates, increased child tax credits, monthly stipends, and more. Supply chain issues, consumer demand shifts, minimum wage discussions and more are competing for attention as well. In the following pages we explore all of it – or at least some of it as space allows. It is complex – as it should be. Longer explanations do help, and we offer those in our podcasts and in our public talks. We encourage you to investigate those options in the commentary section on the website or by reaching out to schedule a presentation at [email protected].

Volume: 29 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title: Reading Tea Leaves

Special Topic Title: Minimum Wage, Explained

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

16 DecHope on the Horizon – December 2020

As we continue to battle COVID-19 and prepare to exit 2020, many questions still weigh on our minds. When will a vaccine become widely available? Will enough people be willing to get a vaccine? When will another stimulus bill be passed? We will discuss these questions and more in this quarterly publication as we delve into Q3 data. With the quick bounce-back in the rearview mirror, the recovery seems to be losing steam amid a deadly third wave, and much of the future is still uncertain. Many people seem to think that things will return to normal once a vaccine is released, but more challenges lie ahead and we are not yet in the clear. In the midst of a very dark and deadly winter, remember to exercise compassion wherever possible.

Volume: 0 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title: Hope on the Horizon?

Special Topic Title: The Winter of COVID-19

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty
  • Sara Wold

15 SepTwo Realities, One Recession – September 2020

On our minds this quarter: a national election, a pandemic, remote working, remote learning, how families and businesses are impacted by all of it and an economy that is operating at about 80% of pre-COVID with strong variances by region. There is a lot to consider. Are we in recovery? What are the impacts of less sports? Will wage disparities create long-lasting issues? What will the impacts be on residential and commercial real estate as people change how/where they work and live? Economics appear to be getting better for some people and worse for others. Our new normal will not be the same one we had a year ago. Regional employment, both location and mix, will be different. Commercial space demand and use will shift. Education delivery will change. We will all adapt. In the meantime, mask up, be kind to your neighbors and lend a hand where you can. Together is how we get to normal.

Volume: 28 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title: Rock Bottom?

Special Topic Title: Puget Sound Sports

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty
  • Sara Wold

15 JunWading Through the Uncertainty – June 2020

As we pass the halfway mark for 2020, this is not the year any of us would have predicted. The challenge with forecasting the unknown is the very fact that at any point anything can change the underlying assumptions – and right now as a region and as nation we are questioning many underlying assumptions. Coronavirus, recession, and the shape of the recovery have dominated our work with the Forecaster. Sprinkle in structural changes into consumer behavior, how employers may manage their employees, and the latest news from either the tech sector or Boeing and you have yourself a ballgame. As we have spent time with the media and countless presentations to groups (all online) it comes down to this – it is bad. The numbers from Q2 will look worse than Q1 and that makes sense. The question is duration. How much of the recovery will we see by Q4 and how much will wait until 2021? In the pages ahead we answer those questions. The short answer – it looks very promising.

Volume: 28 - Number: 0

Leading Index Title: A Long Way Down

Special Topic Title: An Economic Crisis

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

16 MarAnd the Model Says? – March 2020

As we prepared the final edits for this edition of the Forecaster, we began to feel a little like we could easily be in a position to never stop writing and inserting entirely new columns. The end of February and beginning of March have been something. Just when we thought Coronavirus would steal the economic show for a while, Russia and Saudi Arabia decide to pull the floor out of the oil market. There is quite a bit to be watching; that is for sure. We have reminded people a lot in the past four weeks that the market is not the economy. The economic numbers look relatively good - well, at least as they have been. Things continue to slow down. We launched a podcast (economists are seldom early adopters) this past quarter. We record approximately four weeks after we send the publication to print. We use these 30 minutes to expand on content and to update where we can. Look for it on our website. Be sure to follow us on social media! We post a wide range of stories every day that we think you should be reading.

Volume: 28 - Number: 0

Leading Index Title: Not All is as it Seems

Special Topic Title: Economic Vaccines

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

10 DecWash, Rinse, Repeat – December 2019

The 2019 economy has been a mixed bag. While there are a growing number of indicators to be concerned about, some, like consumer spending, remain strong. We have another round of potential tariffs being threatened (France, Argentina, Brazil) and a growing discussion around both consumer and corporate debt. E-commerce continues to grow, with some retailers losing and others making large gains. There is a battle for consumer’s hearts and minds, and we explore that in this edition. A serious discussion about education and the workforce of the future is brewing. In an expanded article, we explore what types of jobs may exist in the future and what type of education they may need. Real Estate seems to be heading back into good territory again. We take a look at both residential and coworking in this edition to dig in beyond headlines. We close out the year with a look at the state’s overall economy and a statistical look at our leading index. From all of us at Western Washington University, we wish you the very best of Merry and Bright!

Volume: 27 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title: Same data, different angle

Special Topic Title: The Seattle Coworking Scene

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 SepDown but Not Out – September 2019

Oh, Fall time! The leaves, the crisp air, a time when everything seems to slow down. It appears that the mood is impacting the forecasts (national, state and regional) with a significant mix of declining indices. As we prepare this edition of the Forecaster new tariffs are likely to raise the prices of everyday items for consumers. Consumer spending (and confidence) from retail to homes are likely to be impacted. Much like the fall weather you will notice both sun and rain in our updated forecasts: declines in a number of areas for both the Puget Sound area and the State with pockets of increases to balance it out (somewhat). Should you panic? Signs are mixed as they say but we do not think so. We have had our eyes on a lot of moving parts this past quarter. If you follow us on your favorite social media feed, you have seen us call out many of these from airplanes to the tech sector and net migration trends to automation. There is a lot to pay attention to. You rely on the forecast and in this issue, we analyze just how reliable the forecast has been short story, much better than the weather forecast. We also explore how technological changes may impact labor data. Grab your galoshes and dive in there is a lot to explore.

Volume: 27 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title:

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

12 JunJune 2019 Newsletter – Data, Trade and Trends

With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.

Volume: 27 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title: Not Yet

Special Topic Title: Stream Flow

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 Mar2018 Stimulus Still Visible in Forecast

The past 30 days have been exciting between major news regarding and impacting Amazon and Boeing and continuing developments in policy at both the federal and state level there has been most things to consider as we construct and analyze the forecast. We wish this was all there is to consider but the list of things to watch continues to make it complicated. This quarter, we see a small uptick in our key metrics despite background noise that is making some nervous. In the pages ahead we explore: the retail apocalypse, the quickly swinging housing indexes and the economics of traffic. In addition, we look at the rise in online retail employment and the greater Washington State forecast.

Volume: 27 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Is Traffic Real?

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 DecShaky Ground – December 2018

This time of year we are asked to do a lot of economic forecast and year in review talks throughout the state. It is interesting to talk with so many business leaders and policy makers as they consider the road behind and ahead. In preparing for these talks, and the Forecaster, we are reminded that much of the data we all rely on is subject to revisions, sometimes substantial, which makes presenting it as facts sometimes uncomfortable. We have a lot to be thankful for this year continued expansion, low unemployment, and stable inflation. Throw in family, friends and food and you have yourself a party. In this issue we explore many different attributes to the expansion, employment, and potential impacts to our region. You know Amazon, Boeing and housing are on our minds. We are launching a social media presence. In January we will email out links for you to follow us on your preferred social media platform. We read a lot of interesting articles and analyses each week and will start sharing out the best of this content in the New Year! From all of us at Western Washington University, we wish you the very best of the season.

Volume: 26 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Labor Force and Population

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty