Archive

End in Sight

This decade has been "just one damn thing after another." Who would have imagined our string of bad luck: the dot-com implosion, 9/11, the housing bubble and credit crunch, and soaring energy prices? Or was it bad luck?

Volume: 17 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

How Deep?

We can gauge a recession in several ways--the decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the number of lost jobs, and the rise in unemployment. An interesting alternative is to express it in terms of time.

Volume: 17 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

A Different Animal

Recessions often follow a predictable course. The 2001-03 recession, triggered by the dot-com bust and the 9/11 aerospace downturn, is an example...The current downturn is a different animal and not just because of its highly uncertain track.

Volume: 17 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Bubbles and Transparency

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

Groping for the Bottom

The National Bureau of Economic Research recently reported that the United States fell into recession at the end of 2007. Now, one year later, the Puget Sound region is in the soup.

Volume: 16 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Great Depression

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

On Its Knees

In the middle of a presidential election there is no need to remind us that we could be misled by economic statistics...As a rule, we should always exercise caution with economic information, since it can fools of us at anytime.

Volume: 16 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Economic Bubbles

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

Slippery Slope

This is nothing like crossing an icy slope in tennis shoes. But the downside of an economic cycle has its own perils. Once an economy begins to slip, it is difficult to figure out where it will land.

Volume: 16 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Rules of Thumb

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

Or Not to Be

"To be, or not to be, that is the question." Shakespeare's line from Hamlet keeps coming to mind whenever there is talk of recession. In February, Global Insight called for a short and shallow downturn for the nation, while the Blue Chip panel predicted a narrow escape.

Volume: 16 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Michigan Recession

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

Hedging Bets

Even forecasters on occasion hit the nail on the head. A year ago, despite concern over a sputtering U.S. economy, we said that it was "not the time to lose our good cheer."

Volume: 15 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Gross Domestic Product

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

Wait and See

Two-year forecasts are more accurate than ten-year projections, right? Not always. Consider the volatile housing market, a topic of keen interest right now.

Volume: 15 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Long-Range Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

Holding Together

A course in regional economics often begins with a deceptively simple question: what is a region? The word is commonly used in the context of politics (the middle-east region), climate (the arctic region), and topography (the Appalachian region).

Volume: 15 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen