Archive

20 DecRegional Economy on the Same Path – December 2017

The outlook remains positive. Nonetheless, we continue to wonder when we'll see the peak in local employment at Amazon, when and how much growth we'll see at Microsoft, and what Boeing may do with its next new plane We also highlight in this issue differences in economic activity and demographics across counties in Washington. The dramatic job growth since 2010 in the Puget Sound area stands in stark contrast to the slow growth in many parts of the state. While some urban areas like Vancouver and Bellingham have seen solid employment growth in recent years, the rate of growth has been slower than in Seattle and the drivers have differed as well. Differences in economic activity have led to interesting differences in how counties are aging.

Volume: 25 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Place Matters

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

20 OctThank You – October 2017

One theme in this Outlook is the more things change, the more they stay the same. It's a new quarter with plenty of developments. From Harvey and Irma to the security problems at Equifax, as well as the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and geopolitical risks with North Korea, we have plenty of new things to consider.

Volume: 25 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: The Cost of Housing

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

16 JunThank You

The Puget Sound region has a habit of stumbling into deep recessions. Relatively speaking, in every downturn since 1969, it has suffered a greater employment loss than the nation. Fortunately, since robust recoveries have more than compensated for the backsliding, the region has outpaced the nation in the long run. Over the last five decades, regional jobs have tripled, while national jobs have doubled.

Volume: 25 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Rules of Behavior

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

19 DecThe New Boss

President-Elect Donald Trump saved 1,100 jobs at a Carrier plant in Indiana. Or was it 800? He then objected to the $4 billion cost of the next Air Force One being built by Boeing...It should be no surprise that someone who prides himself as a businessman would want to get his hands on the economy.

Volume: 24 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: The Leading Index

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

15 SepLong Shot

Grading a forecasting record based on short-term predictions is akin to cheating. How far off can one be on a one-year-ahead forecast?

Volume: 24 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Agglomeration

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

13 JunMixed Messages

When an economy is smoothly rolling along, it is fairly easy to forecast. At the start of the recovery in 2009, two potential developments seemed likely: the U.S. economy would rebound slowly because of restrictive federal fiscal policies; and the Puget Sound region would outpace the nation because of thousands of new jobs at Boeing and Amazon.com...Now that the recovery is getting longer in the tooth, questions are arising about its future course.

Volume: 24 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Import Substitution

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 MarBuckle Up

Whenever a pilot encounters turbulent air, the seat-belt sign goes on. Even in mild disturbances, one cannot rule out an unexpected drop in altitude. This might explain why economists have the reputation of predicting "six out of the last two recessions." Like pilots, they tend to be overly cautious, knowing the potential danger of falling.

Volume: 24 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

17 DecChanges in the Wind

Economists are often called "the dismal scientists" and for good reason. When the economy is expanding at a rapid pace--as it is now in the Puget Sound region--they start fretting about the next recession.

Volume: 23 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: State and Local Finances

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

16 SepThe Way We Are

Are we the most volatile economy in the United States? That would be hard to prove, but there is little doubt that we have had more than our fair share of ups and downs.

Volume: 23 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Trend and Cycle

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen

17 JunTrend and Cycle

Whether measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or employment, the movement of the economy can be broken down into two components. Trend refers to the long-term growth of the economy, which is described graphically by a smooth curved line between two points in time. Cycle refers to the drifting movement of the economy above and below the trend line.

Volume: 23 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Regional Economic Structure

Authors:

  • Dick Conway
  • Doug Pedersen