Grading a forecasting record based on short-term predictions is akin to cheating. How far off can one be on a one-year-ahead forecast?
Download the NewsletterVolume: 24 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Agglomeration
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When an economy is smoothly rolling along, it is fairly easy to forecast. At the start of the recovery in 2009, two potential developments seemed likely: the U.S. economy would rebound slowly because of restrictive federal fiscal policies; and the Puget Sound region would outpace the nation because of thousands of new jobs at Boeing and Amazon.com...Now that the recovery is getting longer in the tooth, questions are arising about its future course.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 24 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Import Substitution
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Whenever a pilot encounters turbulent air, the seat-belt sign goes on. Even in mild disturbances, one cannot rule out an unexpected drop in altitude. This might explain why economists have the reputation of predicting "six out of the last two recessions." Like pilots, they tend to be overly cautious, knowing the potential danger of falling.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 24 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting
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Economists are often called "the dismal scientists" and for good reason. When the economy is expanding at a rapid pace--as it is now in the Puget Sound region--they start fretting about the next recession.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 23 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: State and Local Finances
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Are we the most volatile economy in the United States? That would be hard to prove, but there is little doubt that we have had more than our fair share of ups and downs.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 23 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Trend and Cycle
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Whether measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or employment, the movement of the economy can be broken down into two components. Trend refers to the long-term growth of the economy, which is described graphically by a smooth curved line between two points in time. Cycle refers to the drifting movement of the economy above and below the trend line.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 23 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Regional Economic Structure
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the nation created 295,000 jobs in February, driving the unemployment rate down to 5.5 percent, the lowest in seven years. Upon release of the employment numbers, the Dow plummeted 330 points. What gives?
Download the NewsletterVolume: 23 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Washington Tax Structure
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Washington state has a long history of regional economic modeling, forecasting, and analysis. It started sixty years ago when University of Washington professors Douglass North and Charles Tiebout formulated the economic base theory of regional growth.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 23 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: U.S. Economic Regions
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For twenty-two years we have peered into a crystal ball trying to discern our economic future. In retrospect, if we could have picked another time to forecast, it would have been from 1970 to 2000 when the economy behaved...well...more predictably.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 23 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Winners and Losers
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The lead should probably read "Not Letting Go," since we seem reluctant to release the brakes on the economy and let it roll. The U.S. economy has made progress since the trough of the Great Recession in 2009, but the recovery has been painfully slow. After a six-year hiatus, employment is just now returning to its pre-recession peak.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 22 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Productivity, Compensation, and Inflation
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