For twenty-two years we have peered into a crystal ball trying to discern our economic future. In retrospect, if we could have picked another time to forecast, it would have been from 1970 to 2000 when the economy behaved...well...more predictably.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 23 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Winners and Losers
Authors:
The lead should probably read "Not Letting Go," since we seem reluctant to release the brakes on the economy and let it roll. The U.S. economy has made progress since the trough of the Great Recession in 2009, but the recovery has been painfully slow. After a six-year hiatus, employment is just now returning to its pre-recession peak.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 22 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Productivity, Compensation, and Inflation
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In 1909, Winston Churchill said that no one "should receive less than a living wage in return for the utmost exertion." On October 24, 1938, President Roosevelt signed the Fair Labor Standards Act establishing a $0.25 per hour minimum wage.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 22 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Economic Timeline
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If you sense some frustration with this outlook, you are right. Based on the behavior of the national economy this year, it deserves a lump of coal in its holiday stocking.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 21 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Economic Timeline
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Era is perhaps an exaggeration, but it has been a long time. In October Puget Sound wage and salary jobs will likely reach 1,856,700. The last time employment hit that mark was February 2008...But it is time to forget the Great Recession--though not its lessons--and move on.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 21 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Personal Income
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First a clarification for the following discussion: the phrase "Two Washingtons" does not mean the state of Washington and that dysfunctional political body on the east coast. Rather, it refers to the Puget Sound region and the rest of the state.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 21 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Regional Growth
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"It's the economy, stupid" was a campaign slogan used by Bill Clinton to defeat the incumbent president, George Bush, Sr., in the 1992 election. Now it seems that the catch phrase has been turned on its head.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 21 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting
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People went to the polls in November with raised hopes that the election would put an end to the misery brought about by the Great Recession...But instead we may get another downturn.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 20 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Estimating Population
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Uncertainty is what makes economic forecasters look for another job. It is also the reason why forecasting is fun.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 22 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: The Jobless
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Politicians excel at debating issues and then doing nothing about them...But the Obama administration and Congress have come to the edge of what has been called the "fiscal cliff," and this time there is no backing away.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 20 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Economic Resilience
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