When a driver taps the brakes, the car slows down but remains under control. The workings of an economy are not so simple. If the economy decelerates in response to an oil price shock, for example, the slowdown may trigger a reaction that further impedes its progress.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 14 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Taxable Retail Sales
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The Puget Sound economy, slammed by two Boeing downturns and the dot-com bust, hit bottom in the second quarter of 2003...But what a difference three years make.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 14 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Services
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Did Airbus really win last year's skirmish over airplane orders? Excluding cancellations and conversions, the European airplane maker claimed that it booked 1,111 firm orders, 82 more than Boeing.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 14 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: California
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Typically, it takes more than one thing to lift an economy up or drag it down. In 1997, boosted by strong national growth, a cyclical upturn at Boeing, and the dot-com boom, Puget Sound employment jumped 5.1 percent.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 13 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Entrepreneurs
Authors:
One thing about the bottom of a recession, the prospects are good. After shedding five percent of its employment during the slump, the Puget Sound region finally got things turned around in the middle of 2003.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 13 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Socio-Economic Rankings
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Mix the expansionary phase of a business cycle with a weak dollar in a trade-dependent area and you have the makings of an economic boom. That is exactly what happened in the Puget Sound region twenty years ago.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 13 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Per Capita Income
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Even armed with high-powered models, economic forecasters sometimes get it wrong. The Blue Chip panel of economists failed to predict the national recession in 2001. In fact, they did not even recognize it until it was almost over. We fared no better in forecasting the collapse of the Puget Sound economy.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 13 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: The Leading Index
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A hackneyed but important fact is that consumer spending in the United States accounts for two-thirds of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This was true in the 1970s (66 percent), 1980s (67 percent), and 1990s (67 percent).
Download the NewsletterVolume: 12 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Cost of Living
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Expect a few bumps on the road to economic recovery; they are not uncommon. In the early 1970s, a four-fold increase in world oil prices threw the U.S. economy into recession, delaying the recovery of the Puget Sound economy from the Boeing Bust.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 12 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Economic Development
Authors:
At the risk of jumping the gun, we do not want to pass up an important milestone for the Puget Sound economy. Following a three-year retreat, regional employment moved up sharply at the beginning of the year, marking a welcome turning point in the current economic cycle.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 12 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Labor Force
Authors:
