Archive

10 DecWash, Rinse, Repeat – December 2019

The 2019 economy has been a mixed bag. While there are a growing number of indicators to be concerned about, some, like consumer spending, remain strong. We have another round of potential tariffs being threatened (France, Argentina, Brazil) and a growing discussion around both consumer and corporate debt. E-commerce continues to grow, with some retailers losing and others making large gains. There is a battle for consumer’s hearts and minds, and we explore that in this edition. A serious discussion about education and the workforce of the future is brewing. In an expanded article, we explore what types of jobs may exist in the future and what type of education they may need. Real Estate seems to be heading back into good territory again. We take a look at both residential and coworking in this edition to dig in beyond headlines. We close out the year with a look at the state’s overall economy and a statistical look at our leading index. From all of us at Western Washington University, we wish you the very best of Merry and Bright!

Volume: 27 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title: Same data, different angle

Special Topic Title: The Seattle Coworking Scene

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 SepDown but Not Out – September 2019

Oh, Fall time! The leaves, the crisp air, a time when everything seems to slow down. It appears that the mood is impacting the forecasts (national, state and regional) with a significant mix of declining indices. As we prepare this edition of the Forecaster new tariffs are likely to raise the prices of everyday items for consumers. Consumer spending (and confidence) from retail to homes are likely to be impacted. Much like the fall weather you will notice both sun and rain in our updated forecasts: declines in a number of areas for both the Puget Sound area and the State with pockets of increases to balance it out (somewhat). Should you panic? Signs are mixed as they say but we do not think so. We have had our eyes on a lot of moving parts this past quarter. If you follow us on your favorite social media feed, you have seen us call out many of these from airplanes to the tech sector and net migration trends to automation. There is a lot to pay attention to. You rely on the forecast and in this issue, we analyze just how reliable the forecast has been short story, much better than the weather forecast. We also explore how technological changes may impact labor data. Grab your galoshes and dive in there is a lot to explore.

Volume: 27 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title:

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

12 JunJune 2019 Newsletter – Data, Trade and Trends

With thoughts of the long warm days of summer on our minds, we have found ourselves interrupted pondering about the price of avocados and how the latest round of tariff threats that may impact retail sales and the general economy overall. Thoughts of spending time at the lake or river have found us considering stream flows and how the change in our climate may impact all of the people and businesses that rely on water in one way or another. Daydreams of patio and deck BBQs have caused us to reflect on changes in house prices and the sudden growth in sales outside of the King County – is it more commuters or are jobs moving? Will the Seattle to Everett corridor retain its worst traffic in the nation ranking? Evidently, economists are bad at not thinking about things. All of the above is ahead in this edition of the Forecaster plus a better understanding of workforce participation and the state forecast. We will just call it the beach edition.

Volume: 27 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title: Not Yet

Special Topic Title: Stream Flow

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 Mar2018 Stimulus Still Visible in Forecast

The past 30 days have been exciting between major news regarding and impacting Amazon and Boeing and continuing developments in policy at both the federal and state level there has been most things to consider as we construct and analyze the forecast. We wish this was all there is to consider but the list of things to watch continues to make it complicated. This quarter, we see a small uptick in our key metrics despite background noise that is making some nervous. In the pages ahead we explore: the retail apocalypse, the quickly swinging housing indexes and the economics of traffic. In addition, we look at the rise in online retail employment and the greater Washington State forecast.

Volume: 27 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Is Traffic Real?

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 DecShaky Ground – December 2018

This time of year we are asked to do a lot of economic forecast and year in review talks throughout the state. It is interesting to talk with so many business leaders and policy makers as they consider the road behind and ahead. In preparing for these talks, and the Forecaster, we are reminded that much of the data we all rely on is subject to revisions, sometimes substantial, which makes presenting it as facts sometimes uncomfortable. We have a lot to be thankful for this year continued expansion, low unemployment, and stable inflation. Throw in family, friends and food and you have yourself a party. In this issue we explore many different attributes to the expansion, employment, and potential impacts to our region. You know Amazon, Boeing and housing are on our minds. We are launching a social media presence. In January we will email out links for you to follow us on your preferred social media platform. We read a lot of interesting articles and analyses each week and will start sharing out the best of this content in the New Year! From all of us at Western Washington University, we wish you the very best of the season.

Volume: 26 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Labor Force and Population

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • Josh Grandbouche
  • James McCafferty

20 SepForecast Considerations

It is worth noting that employment has increased more than 20 percent since 2009, with the recovery in its 8th year, and we expect it to last a bit longer. Employment growth has been much stronger in the Service Providing sectors, especially Professional and Technical Services and Information, than in the Goods Producing sectors. Still, we've seen widespread growth and some indicators suggest the region has been the fastest growing big city in the U.S. this decade. A question we're being asked more and more is, when will it end?

Volume: 26 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Forest Fires

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

20 JunTariffs, Policies and Other Rumors – June 2018

Last quarter we unveiled a returning column written by our colleagues at Employment Security. Beginning with the September edition it will take you a little longer to read the Forecaster as we add an entire set of new pages that will present the state-wide forecast among other informative items. The expansion will mean more pages for you to read through but will not change the Puget Sound focused content. This expansion of the Forecaster is a key step in connecting the economic activity of the Puget Sound (which drives a majority of the state numbers) with the nuances of the overall stateís activities. In producing the Forecaster we draw upon the expertise of our colleagues from throughout the region, our faculty here at Western Washington University and our student research assistants. Each provides a unique perspective and voice to the topics we present with our goal of providing you the background to navigate within the economy. We also want to highlight the role of different faculty and student assistants. We have different experts contributing articles and ideas. We welcome your questions and topic suggestions for future articles. Email us at [email protected].

Volume: 26 - Number: 2

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Inside Unemployment

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

20 MarEconomy May Be Reaching Its Limits

As we wrap up the first quarter of the year it is a good time to take stock of what happened in 2017. Last year was a strong year by most measures, but as we have noted, the economy may be reaching its limits. Some factors are cooling off from their highs seen in 2016, such as employment growth. Unemployment continues to fall even lower locally than it is nationally, begging the question of how low the natural rate of unemployment is in this economy ñ and who is actually considered to be unemployed. Inflation has the Fed's attention. Later this year they will decide if the economy is reaching the point where rates are raised four times this year as they're hinting rather than three.

Volume: 26 - Number: 1

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Inside Unemployment

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

20 DecRegional Economy on the Same Path – December 2017

The outlook remains positive. Nonetheless, we continue to wonder when we'll see the peak in local employment at Amazon, when and how much growth we'll see at Microsoft, and what Boeing may do with its next new plane We also highlight in this issue differences in economic activity and demographics across counties in Washington. The dramatic job growth since 2010 in the Puget Sound area stands in stark contrast to the slow growth in many parts of the state. While some urban areas like Vancouver and Bellingham have seen solid employment growth in recent years, the rate of growth has been slower than in Seattle and the drivers have differed as well. Differences in economic activity have led to interesting differences in how counties are aging.

Volume: 25 - Number: 4

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: Place Matters

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty

20 OctThank You – October 2017

One theme in this Outlook is the more things change, the more they stay the same. It's a new quarter with plenty of developments. From Harvey and Irma to the security problems at Equifax, as well as the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and geopolitical risks with North Korea, we have plenty of new things to consider.

Volume: 25 - Number: 3

Leading Index Title:

Special Topic Title: The Cost of Housing

Authors:

  • Hart Hodges
  • James McCafferty