Professor Neil Bruce of the University of Washington recently lectured on the economy's impact on the presidential election. Making use of the Fair Model, he predicted that President Bush would win in November with a 54 percent vote.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 12 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: The Dollar
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Economic conditions in the Puget Sound region have been dismal for three years. As if on a steep slide with a long run-out, employment plunged from 1,735,000 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2000 to 1,658,300 in the second quarter of 2002 and then bumped along sideways to 1,656,400 in the third quarter of 2003.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 11 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Regional Forecasting
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Despite the increasing diversity of the Puget Sound economy, it is still subject to the vagaries of Boeing. Were it not for back-to-back downturns in aircraft production and employment, the current recession would have been much less onerous.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 11 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Location
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Mercifully, the Iraqi conflict came to a quick end. However, the anticipated post-war surge in the U.S. economy has yet to materialize. Consumer and investor confidence is rising, but many economic indicators, such as industrial production and employment, are falling.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 11 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: NAICS
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Wars represent major chapters in our economic history. World War II helped the nation recover from the Great Depression. In the Puget Sound region, when thousands of men and women went to work manufacturing bombers and repairing war-damaged ships, the unemployment rate plummeted from 15 percent to 2 percent.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 11 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: The Windermere Index
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The 4,000 additional layoffs announced by Boeing and Weyerhaeuser will deepen the recession and delay the recovery. Nevertheless, it appears that the worst may be over.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 10 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: China
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If history is a guide, bet on a double-dip recession for the nation, since four of the last six recessions have had two downturns. And new government numbers, revealing that the 2001 recession was deeper and longer than first thought and that the recovery may be stalling, appear to have raised the odds.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 10 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: The 1990's
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Past recessions suggest that once the Puget Sound economy touches bottom it vigorously bounces back. One year after the low point of the 1981-82 recession, employment was expanding at a 6 percent annual rate. But there are reasons for thinking that this time will be different.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 10 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Consumer Expenditures
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The Puget Sound economy does not have a will to do good or bad. Nevertheless, as we become mired in a recession, it is hard to escape the feeling that the economy has let us down. The things that we once admired about the economy--Boeing, high-technology, international trade, and energy prices--have seemingly turned their backs on us.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 10 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Forecasting Methods
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It did not exactly sneak up on us. Last quarter, after the fifth straight drop in our index of leading economic indicators and a virtual halt to the growth of taxable retail sales, we put the Puget Sound economy on watch.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 9 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Impact Analysis
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