Past recessions suggest that once the Puget Sound economy touches bottom it vigorously bounces back. One year after the low point of the 1981-82 recession, employment was expanding at a 6 percent annual rate. But there are reasons for thinking that this time will be different.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 10 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Consumer Expenditures
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The Puget Sound economy does not have a will to do good or bad. Nevertheless, as we become mired in a recession, it is hard to escape the feeling that the economy has let us down. The things that we once admired about the economy--Boeing, high-technology, international trade, and energy prices--have seemingly turned their backs on us.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 10 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Forecasting Methods
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It did not exactly sneak up on us. Last quarter, after the fifth straight drop in our index of leading economic indicators and a virtual halt to the growth of taxable retail sales, we put the Puget Sound economy on watch.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 9 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Impact Analysis
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If you are wondering what is up, the answer is not much. Led by another decline in help-wanted ads, the Puget Sound leading index continues to plunge.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 9 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Measurement Error
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What does it take to knock the Puget Sound economy down? Not an aerospace slump or a troubled high-tech sector. Not escalating energy costs or a national slowdown. Not an earthquake or Boeing's decision to move its headquarters.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 9 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: The Census
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Suppose we had a recession and nobody noticed. Something like this may be in the offing. We tend to view recessions with dread, like a serious illness: "recession may kill 19-year expansion." In fact, most recessions are just minor interruptions in the upward march of the economy.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 9 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Productivity
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Like it or not, the Puget Sound region has little control over its economic destiny, at least in the short run. World air travel dictates how many commercial jets Boeing will sell. Volatile housing markets in California and Japan generate production swings at Weyerhaeuser lumber mills. The incomes of many Seattle fishermen are made or lost in Alaskan waters.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 8 - Number: 4
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Consumer Price Index
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History is not preordained to repeat itself, except maybe in the case of the Puget Sound economy (King, Pierce, Snohomish, and Kitsap counties). For the fifth straight time, the region is beginning a decade with a slowdown or worse.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 8 - Number: 3
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Housing Market
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"The sky is the limit" has been the motto for many software and internet companies. But on or about March 10, the day that the NASDAQ stock index climbed to a record, many of the high-flyers crashed into a ceiling and began falling back to earth.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 8 - Number: 2
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: State and Local Taxes
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With all the talk of a "new economy," one has to believe that there might be something to it. The argument in logical: deregulation, lower taxes, better monetary policy, free trade, new information-based technologies have transformed the United States into a high-productivity and low-inflation economy.
Download the NewsletterVolume: 8 - Number: 1
Leading Index Title:
Special Topic Title: Economic Report Card
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