Files containing subject Forecasting

Grading a forecasting record based on short-term predictions is akin to cheating. How far off can one be on a one-year-ahead forecast? [READ MORE]

When an economy is smoothly rolling along, it is fairly easy to forecast. At the start of the recovery in 2009, two potential developments seemed likely: the U.S. economy would rebound slowly because of restrictive federal fiscal policies; and the Puget Sound region would outpace the nation because of thousands of new jobs at Boeing and Amazon.com...Now that the recovery is getting longer in the [READ MORE]

If you sense some frustration with this outlook, you are right. Based on the behavior of the national economy this year, it deserves a lump of coal in its holiday stocking. [READ MORE]

Uncertainty is what makes economic forecasters look for another job. It is also the reason why forecasting is fun. [READ MORE]

"To be, or not to be, that is the question." Shakespeare's line from Hamlet keeps coming to mind whenever there is talk of recession. In February, Global Insight called for a short and shallow downturn for the nation, while the Blue Chip panel predicted a narrow escape. [READ MORE]

The Puget Sound economy does not have a will to do good or bad. Nevertheless, as we become mired in a recession, it is hard to escape the feeling that the economy has let us down. The things that we once admired about the economy--Boeing, high-technology, international trade, and energy prices--have seemingly turned their backs on us. [READ MORE]